Research by Warwick Business School’s Dr Sue Bridgewater revealed over 500 management dismissals in the top four English football divisions since the Premiership was set up in the 1992-1993 season.

Dr Bridgewater looked at the 678 managerial changes in the four football leagues from August 1992 to December 2005. Of these, 94 managers are still in post (ninety two league posts and two clubs which have been relegated out of the league), 48 resigned for personal, advancement or other reasons, but a staggering 536 of those managers were dismissed from their post. These changes of management have involved 360 different managers.

Managerial merry-go-round

Moreover, the average length of tenure for a football manager in England has gone down from 2.7 years in 1992 to 1.72 years in the current season. Although the rapid changes of football manager are often described as being like a managerial merry-go-round, in fact almost half (49.1%) of the 261 first time football managers are never re-appointed to another football manager job. A further 39 of the 137 second-time appointees also go out of the game. These trends suggest a damaging level of instability in the game. There is a financial cost – in legal fees and settlements – but also a human cost as managers are held responsible for overall club performance, although a range of factors from the quality of the squad, the governance structure of the club and outside factors such as the collapse of ITV Digital have combined to make the football manager’s role difficult.

Dr Bridgewater says ‘I compared the average win percentage of clubs who have had most managers during the period with those who have had fewest. There is a correlation between stability and performance. Clubs with fewest managers over the period, such as Manchester United and Charlton perform better than clubs which have had most managers.

Experience

There are also correlations between experience and success and length of time in post and success. Managers do better if they are given time and can learn from past experiences. Managers who are better prepared also outperform those who have taken fewer coaching and management qualifications. Managers who have completed the UEFA Pro Licence run by the Football Association, or Warwick Business School’s Certificate in Applied Management perform better than those who have no coaching badges or only the lower level UEFA ‘B’ licence. This should not be a surprise. Preparation is a good idea in any sector but there is currently no requirement for football managers to have any coaching badges or qualifications outside of the Premiership, where the UEFA Pro Licence is mandatory. My results seem to suggest that a minimum qualification level would benefit the Empics leagues below the Premiership. In the words of Stuart Pearce, who completed the Certificate programme in 2004, ‘I appreciate that the most important thing is to get good results, but to me the bottom line is the more education you can give yourself, and the more preparation you can do, the less chance of failing. That’s my philosophy.’ ‘This is just the first stage of research into the complex issue of football manager success. I am working on incorporating more of the influences on football manager success and also to on determining the direction of the relationships; for example are managers sacked because they do not do well, or do clubs not do well because they keep sacking the manager?

Stability is the Key to Success

I have also been asked to compare data from other European countries to see if the trends and issues in the English game differ from those seen in Spain, Italy, France, Holland and Germany.’ League Managers Association Chief Executive, John Barnwell, welcomed the research. He said ‘I am grateful to Warwick Business School for producing the most comprehensive piece of managerial statistical analysis ever undertaken in this field. ‘It is clearly a major concern to the League Managers Association that the average tenure of a manager at a football club has fallen dramatically. With an average of 40 dismissals per season, it means that almost half the clubs in the Premiership and Football League now change their manager every season. ‘Stability is invariably the key to success in any industry and football is no different. The LMA believes it is crucial that our members are given every possible opportunity to succeed at their clubs. We also feel it is vitally important that our members are prepared as best as they possibly can be when they take up managerial appointments. This is beneficial for the whole of football as no-one wants to see a trend continuing where the tenure of managers becomes ever shorter and leads to constant upheaval within our clubs.’