Prof Matt Keeling
Director of WIDER
Teaching Responsibilities 2014/15:
Term 1: MA4E7 Population Dynamics: Ecology and Epidemiology
My research focuses on the three E's: Epidemiology, Evolution and Ecology. I am particularly interested in how spatial structure, heterogeneities and stochasticity affect the emergent population-level dynamics; as such my work uses a wide range of modelling tools and concepts. While large-scale simulations do play a substantial role in my work, I'm also very keen to develop simple modelling techniques that can capture the important dynamics of a system. The lists below give a flavour of my interests:
Epidemiology: Foot-and-mouth disease, Avian influenza, Measles, Whooping cough & other childhood infections, Bovine tuberculosis, Smallpox, Within-host immunological dynamics.
Evolution: Disease evolution,
Ecology: Bacteria-phage interactions, spatial habit-use.
Development of novel techniques: Pair-wise correlation models, Moment-closure approximations, Meta-population models, Kolmorgorov Forward Equations.
For more information on my research and that of my group see the WIDER (Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research) webpage.
Philip Leverhulme Prize in Mathematics (2005)
Royal Zoological Society of London, Scientific Medal (2007)
Member of the government's scientific advisory group on foot-and-mouth (2001) .
Member of Science Advisory Council, Exotic Diseases committee (2004-2005).
Member of Academic Advisory Panel for the DTI CBRN initiative (2004-2008).
Wellcome Trust, Basic Infection and Immunity Panel (2004-2007).
Royal Society’s International Networks Committee (2007-2013)
Scientific Pandemic Influenza advisory group (Modelling), for Dept Health. (2009- ).
Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation for Dept of Health (2010-)
BBSRC Animal Disease Working Group (2012-)
Major Editor, Theoretical Population Biology (2003-2008)
Editor, American Naturalist (2004-2009)
Editor, Epidemics (2007-)
Publications. H-index 35, Total Citations >5000
Selected Major Publications. (click for a full publication list)
- Keeling, M.J. and Grenfell, B.T. (1997) Disease Extinction and Community Size: Modeling the Persistence of Measles. Science 275, 65-67.
- Keeling, M.J., Woolhouse, M.E.J., Shaw, D.J., Matthews, L., Chase-Topping, M., Haydon, D.T., Cornell, S.J., Kappey, J., Wilsmith, J. and Grenfell, B.T. (2001) Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape Science 294 813-817
- Eames, K.T.D. and Keeling M.J. 2002 Modelling Dynamic and Network Heterogeneities in the Spread of Sexually Transmitted Disease. P.N.A.S. 99 13330-13335.
- Ferguson, N., Keeling, M.J., Edmunds, J., Gani, R., Grenfell, B., Anderson, R., Leach, S. (2003) Risk assessment and vaccination planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature 425 681-685
- Keeling, M.J., Woolhouse, M.E.J., May, R.M., Davies, G. and Grenfell, B.T. (2003) Modelling Vaccination Strategies against Foot and Mouth Disease. Nature 421 136-142
- Read, J.M. and Keeling, M.J. 2003 Disease evolution on networks: the role of contact structure. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 270 699-708.
- Wearing, H.J., Rohani, P., Keeling, M.J. (2005) Appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases. PLOS Medicine 2 621-627.
- Keeling, M.J. and Eames, K.T.D. (2005) Networks and Epidemic Models J. Roy Soc. Interface 2295-307.
- Keeling, M.J. and Rohani, P. (2008) Modelling Infectious Diseases, Princeton University Press.
- Vernon, M.C. and Keeling, M.J. (2009) Representing the UK's cattle herd as static and dynamic networks. Proc. Roy. Soc. B. 276 469-476.
Selected Recent Publications (2010-2013).
- Keeling, M.J., Danon, L., Vernon, M.C., and House, T.A. (2010) Individual identity and movement networks for disease metapopulations. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107 8866-70
- Rorres, C., Pelletier, S.T., Keeling, M.J. and Smith, G. (2010) Estimating the kernel parameters of premises-based stochastic models of farmed animal infectious disease epidemics using limited, incomplete, or ongoing data. Theoretical Population Biology. 78 46-53
- Tildesley, M.J., House, T.A., Bruhn, M.C., Curry, R.J., O'Neil, M., Allpress, J.L., Smith, G. and Keeling, M.J. (2010) Impact of spatial clustering on disease transmission and optimal control. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107 1041-6
- House, T.A. and Keeling, M.J. (2010) The impact of contact tracing in clustered populations. PLoS Comput Biol 6 e1000721
- Conlan, A.J.K., Rohani, P., Lloyd, A.L., Keeling, M.J. and Grenfell, B.T. (2010) Resolving the impact of waiting time distributions on the persistence of measles. J R Soc Interface 7 623-640
- Keeling, M.J. and White P.J. (2011) Targeting vaccination against novel infections: risk, age and spatial structure for pandemic influenza in Great Britain. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 58 661-670
- House, T., Baguelin, M., van Hoek, A.J., White, P.J., Sadique, Z., Eames, K., Read, J.M., Hens, N., Melegaro, A., Edmunds, W.J. and Keeling, M.J. (2001) Modelling the impact of local reactive school closures on critical care provision during an influenza pandemic. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 278 2753-2760
- Carslake, D., Grant, W., Green, L.E., Cave, J., Greaves, J., Keeling, M., McEldowney, J., Weldegebriel, H. and Medley, G.F. (2011) Endemic cattle diseases: comparative epidemiology and governance. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 366 1975-86
- Danon, L., Ford, A.P., House, T., Jewell, C.P., Keeling, M.J., Roberts, G.O., Ross, J.V., Vernon, M.C. (2011) Networks and the epidemiology of infectious disease. Interdiscip Perspect Infect Dis 2011 284909
- House, T. and Keeling, M.J. (2011) Epidemic prediction and control in clustered populations. J. Theor. Biol. 272 1-7.
- Lurette, A., Belloc, C. and Keeling, M. (2011) Contact structure and Salmonella control in the network of pig movements in France. Prev. Vet. Med. 102 30-40.
- Tildesley, M.J. Smith, G. and Keeling, M.J. (2012) Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control, Prev Vet Med 104, 224–239.
- Vernon, M.C. and Keeling, M.J. (2012) Impact of regulatory perturbations to disease spread through cattle movements in Great Britain, Prev Vet Med 105, 110–117.
- Keeling, M.J. and Shattock, A. (2012) Optimal but unequitable prophylactic distribution of vaccine, Epidemics 4, 78–85
- Danon, L., House, T.A., Read, J.M. and Keeling, M.J. (2012) Social encounter networks: collective properties and disease transmission. J. Roy. Soc. Interface 9 2826-2833
- Black, A.J., House, T., Keeling, M.J. and Ross, J.V. (2013) Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza. J. Roy. Soc. Interface. 10 20121019
Recent & Current Research grants:
MRC, "Social contact survey and modelling the spread of influenza" (01/10/2008 - 30/09/2011)
BBSRC, "INFer: Likelihood-based inference for Epidemic Risk" (01/10/2009 - 30/09/2013)
EPSRC, "Implications of clustering for network-based processes" (01/01/2010 - 31/05/2013)
BBSRC, "Modelling systems for managing bee disease: the epidemiology of European Foul Brood" (01/04/2011 - 31/11/2013)
Wellcome Trust, "State-of-the-art Epidemic Models" (01/01/2011 - 31/09/2013)
NIH-BBSRC, "Linking models and policy: Using active adaptive management for optimal control of disease outbreaks." (1/09/2012 - 31/08/2016)
DEFRA, "A study to design risk based bTB surveillance regimes in England and Wales" (01/10/2012 - 31/09/2014)
ESRC, "Social assortativity and contagious processes in modern Britain" (01/01/2013 - 31/12/2015)