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Publications

Publications 2015


Brand, S.P.C., Tildesley, M.J. and Keeling, M.J. (2015) Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics: A spectral method. J. Theo. Biol. 370 121-134

Brooks-Pollock, E., de Jong, M.C.M., Keeling, M.J., Klinkenberg, D. and Wood, J.L.N. (2015) Eight challenges in modelling infectious livestock diseases. Epidemics 10 1-5

Geard, N., Glass, K., McCaw, J.M., McBryde, E.S., Korb, K.B., Keeling, M.J. and McVernon, J. (2015) The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population. Epidemics 13 56-64.

Keeling, M.J. and Ross, J.V. (2015) Optimal prophylactic vaccination in segregated populations: When can we improve on the equalising strategy? Epidemics 11 7-13

Pellis, L., House, T. and Keeling, M.J. (2015) Exact and approximate moment closures for non-Markovian network epidemics. J. Theo Biol. 382 160-177

Rock, K.S., Stone, C.M., Hastings, I.M., Keeling, M.J., Torr, S.J. and Chitnis, N. (2015) Mathematical Models of Human African Trypanosomiasis Epidemiology. Advances in Parasitology. 87 53-133

Rock, K.S., Wood, D.A. and Keeling, M.J. (2015) Age- and bite-structured models for vector-borne diseases. Epidemics 12 20-29.

Publications 2014


Brooks-Pollock, E., Roberts, G.O., Keeling, M.J. (2014) A dynamic model of bovine tuberculosis spread and control in Great Britain. Nature 511 228-231

Black, A.J., House, T., Keeling, M.J., Ross, J.V. (2014) The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology 359 45 - 53

Buhnerkempe, M.G., Tildesley, M.J., Lindström, T., Grear, D.A., Portacci, K., Miller, R.S., Lombard, J.E., Werkman, M., Keeling, M.J., Wennergren, U., Webb, C.T. (2014) The impact of movements and animal density on continental scale cattle disease outbreaks in the United States. PLoS ONE 9 e91724

Hancock, P.A., Rehman, Y., Hall, I.M., Edeghere, O., Danon, L., House, T.A. and Keeling, M.J. (2014) Strategies for Controlling Non-Transmissible Infection Outbreaks Using a Large Human Movement Data Set. PLoS Comp. Biol. 10 e1003809

Rock, K., Brand, S., Moir, J. and Keeling, M.J. (2014) Dynamics of infectious diseases. Reports on Progress in Physics 77 026602

Publications 2013


Datta, S., Bull, J.C., Budge G.E. and Keeling, M.J. (2013) Modelling the spread of American foulbrood in honeybees. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 10 (88) 20130650

van Boeckel, T.P., Tildesley, M.J., Linard, C., Halloy, J., Keeling, M.J. and Gilbert, M (2013) The Nosoi commute: a spatial perspective on the rise of BSL-4 laboratories in cities. arXiv:1312.3283

Danon, L., Read, J.M., House, T.A., Vernon, M.C., Keeling, M.J. (2013) Social encounter networks: Characterizing great Britain. Proc Roy Soc Lond B. 280 1765

Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M.J., Ross, J.V. (2013) Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 10 (81) 20121019

Webb, S.D., Keeling, M.J., Boots, M. (2013) The role of spatial population structure on the evolution of parasites with acquired immunity and demography. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 324, 21-31.

Webb, S.D., Keeling, M.J., Boots, M. (2013) A theoretical study of the role of spatial population structure in the evolution of parasite virulence. Theoretical Population Biology, 84 (1) 36-45.

Sutherland, W.J., et al (2013) Identification of 100 fundamental ecological questions. Journal of Ecology, 101 58-67

Publications 2012


Danon, L., House, T.A., Read, J.M. and Keeling, M.J. (2012) Social encounter networks: collective properties and disease transmission, J R Soc Interface, doi:10.1098/rsif.2012.0357.

House, T., Inglis, N., Ross, J.V., Wilson, F., Suleman, S., Edeghere, O., Smith, G., Olowokure, B. and Keeling, M.J (2012) Estimation of outbreak severity and transmissibility: Influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 in households. BMC Medicine 10 117

Tildesley, M.J. Smith, G. and Keeling, M.J. (2012) Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control, Prev Vet Med 104, 224–239.

Vernon, M.C. and Keeling, M.J. (2012) Impact of regulatory perturbations to disease spread through cattle movements in Great Britain, Prev Vet Med 105, 110–117.

Keeling, M.J. and Shattock, A. (2012) Optimal but unequitable prophylactic distribution of vaccine, Epidemics 4, 78–85

Danon, L., House, T.A., Read, J.M. and Keeling, M.J. (2012) Social encounter networks: collective properties and disease transmission. J. Roy. Soc. Interface 9 2826-2833

Rock, K.S., Keeling, M.J. and Wood, D.A. (2012) Modelling the future of the Hawaiian honeycreeper: An ecological and epidemiological problem. Ecological Modelling. 235 26-35.

Publications 2011
Carslake, D., Grant, W., Green, L.E., Cave, J. Greaves, J., Keeling, M., McEldowney, J., Weldegebriel, H. and Medley, G.F. (2011) Endemic cattle diseases: comparative epidemiology and governance. Philo Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 366 1975-86

House T, Baguelin M, van Hoek AJ, White PJ, Sadique Z, Eames K, Read JM, Hens N, Melegaro A, Edmunds WJ, Keeling MJ (2011) Modelling the impact of local reactive school closures on critical care provision during an influenza pandemic. Proc Roy Soc Lond B. 278 2753-2760.

Keeling, M.J. and White, P.J. (2011) Targeting vaccination against novel infections: risk, age and spatial structure for pandemic influenza in Great Britain. J. Roy. Soc. Interface. 8 661-670

House, T. and Keeling, M.J. (2011) Epidemic predictions and control in clustered populations. J. Theor. Biol. 272 1-7

House, T. and Keeling, M.J. (2011) Insights from unifying modern approximations to infections on networks. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 8 67-73.

Danon L, Ford AP, House T, Jewell CP, Keeling MJ, Roberts GO, Ross JV, Vernon MC (2011) Networks and the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease. Interdiscip Perspect Infect Dis. 2011;2011:284909. Epub 2011 Mar 16.

Lurette, A., Belloc, C. and Keeling, M. (2011) Contact structure and Salmonella control in the network of pig movements in France. Prev. Vet. Med. 102 30-40

Travis ER, Gaze WH, Pontiroli A, Sweeney FP, Porter D, Mason S, Keeling MJ, Jones RM, Sawyer J, Aranaz A, Castellanos Rizaldos E, Cork J, Delahay RJ, Wilson GJ, Hewinson RG, Courtenay O, Wellington EMH (2011) An Inter-Laboratory Validation of a Real Time PCR Assay to Measure Host Excretion of Bacterial Pathogens, Particularly of Mycobacterium bovis. PLoS ONE 6


Publications 2010

Keeling, M.J., Danon, L., Vernon, M.C., and House, T.A. (2010) Individual identity and movement networks for disease metapopulations. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107 8866-70

Rorres, C., Pelletier, S.T., Keeling, M.J. and Smith, G. (2010) Estimating the kernel parameters of premises-based stochastic models of farmed animal infectious disease epidemics using limited, incomplete, or ongoing data. Theo. Pop. Biol. 78 46-53

Tildesley, M.J., House, T.A., Bruhn, M.C., Curry, R.J., O'Neil, M., Allpress, J.L., Smith, G. and Keeling, M.J. (2010) Impact of spatial clustering on disease transmission and optimal control. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107 1041-6

Ross, J.V., House, T.A. and Keeling, M.J. (2010) Calculation of Disease Dynamics in a Population of Households. PLoS ONE 5 e9666

House, T.A. and Keeling, M.J. (2010) The impact of contact tracing in clustered populations. PLoS Comput Biol 6 e1000721

Conlan, A.J.K., Rohani, P., Lloyd, A.L., Keeling, M.J. and Grenfell, B.T. (2010) Resolving the impact of waiting time distributions on the persistence of measles. J R Soc Interface 7 623-640

House, T., Hall, I., Danon, L., and Keeling, M.J. (2010) Contingency planning for a deliberate release of smallpox in Great Britain-the role of geographical scale and contact structure. BMC Infect Dis 10 25

Deardon, R., Brooks, S.P., Grenfell, B.T., Keeling, M.J., Tildesley, M.J., Savill, N.J., Shaw, D.J., and Woolhouse, M.E.J. (2010) Inference for Individual-level Models of Infectious Diseases in Large Populations. Stat Sinica 20 239-261


Publications 2009

Vernon, M.C. and Keeling, M.J. 2009 Representing the UK's cattle herd as static and dynamic networks. Proc. Roy. Soc. B. 276 469-476.

Heffernan, J.M. and Keeling, M.J. 2009 Implications of vaccination and waning immunity. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 276 2071-2080.

Tildesley, M.J. and Keeling, M.J. 2009 Is R0 a good predictor of epidemic size: Foot-and-Mouth disease in the UK. Theor. Biol. 75 133-141

House, T., Davies, G., Danon, L. and Keeling, M.J. 2009 A Motif-Based Approach to Network Epidemics. Bull. Math. Biol. 71 1693-1706

Dangerfield, C.E., Ross, J.V. and Keeling, M.J. 2009 Integrating stochasticity and network structure into an epidemic model. J. R. Soc. Interface. 6 761-774

Jewell, C.P., Keeling, M.J. and Roberts, G.O. 2009 Predicting undetected infections during the 2007 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. J. R. Soc. Interface. 6 1145-151

Tildesley, M.J., Bessell, P.R., Keeling, M.J. and Woolhouse, M.E.J. 2009 The role of pre-emptive culling in the control of foot-and-mouth disease. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 276 3239-3248.

Keeling, M.J. and Ross. J.V. 2009 Efficient methods for studying stochastic disease and population dynamics. Theo. Pop. Biol. 258 623-629.

House, T.A. and Keeling, M.J. 2009 Household structure and infectious disease transmission. Epidemiology and Infection. 137 654-661.

Danon, L., House, T., and Keeling, M.J. 2009 The role of routine versus random movements on the spread of disease in Great Britain. Epidemics 1 250-258

Keeling, M.J. and Danon, L. 2009 Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases. British Medical Bull. 92 33-42.

Brooks-Pollock, E. and Keeling, M.J. 2009 Herd size and bovine tuberculosis persistence in cattle farms in Great Britain. Prev Vet. Med. 92 360-365.

 
Publications 2008

 
Keeling, M.J. and Ross, J. (2008) On methods for studying stochastic disease dynamics. J. Roy. Soc. Interface. 5 171-181

Heffernan, J.M. and Keeling, M.J. (2008) An in-host model of acute infection: Measles as a case study. Theo. Pop. Biol. 73 134-147.

House, T. and Keeling, M.J. (2008) Deterministic Epidemic Models with Explicit Household Structure. Maths BioSci. 213 29-39.

Tildesley, M.J. and Keeling, M.J. (2008) Modelling foot-and-mouth disease: a comparison between the UK and Denmark. Pre Vet Med. 85 107-124.

Tildesley, M.J., Deardon, R., Savill, N.J., Bessell, P.R., Brooks, S.P., Woolhouse, M.E.J., Grenfell, B.T. and Keeling, M.J. (2008) Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 275 1459-1468.

 

Publications 2007


MJ Keeling, P Rohani (2007) Modeling Infectious Diseases in humans and animals. Princeton University Press

O Courtenay, LA Reilly, FP Sweeney, DW Macdonald, RJ Delahay, GJ Wilson, CL Cheeseman, MJ Keeling, EMH Wellington (2007) Performance of an environmental test to detect Mycobacterium bovis infection in badger social groups. Vet Rec. 161 817-818.

ARG Price, MJ Keeling, IN Stewart (2007) A robustness metric integrating spatial and temporal information: Application to coral reefs exposed to local and regional disturbances. Marine Ecology Progress Series 331, 101-108

NJ Savill, DJ Shaw, R Deardon, M Tildesley, MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse, SP Brooks, BT Grenfell (2007) Effect of data quality on estimates of farm infectiousness trends in the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic. J. Roy. Soc. Interface. 4 235-241

JM Read, MJ Keeling (2007) Stochasticity generates and evolutionary instability for infectious diseases. Ecology Letters 10 818-827.

NJ Savill, DJ Shaw, R Deardon, MJ Tildesley, MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse, SP Brooks, BT Grenfell (2007) Effect of data quality on estimates of farm infectiousness trends in the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 4, 235-241

MJ Tildesley, NJ Savill, DJ Shaw, R Deardon, SP Brooks, MEJ Woolhouse, BT Grenfell, MJ Keeling (2007) Veterinary epidemiology: Vaccination strategies for foot-and-mouth disease (reply). Nature 445, E12-E13

SD Webb, MJ Keeling, M Boots (2007) Spatially extended host-parasite interactions: The role of recovery and immunity. Theor. Pop. Biol. 71 251-266.

SD Webb, MJ Keeling, M Boots (2007) Host-parasite interactions between the local and the mean-field: How and when does spatial population structure matter? J. Theor Biol 249 140-152

KA Woodbine, GF Medley, J Slevin, AL Kilbride, EJ Novell, MJ Turner, MJ Keeling, LE Green (2007) Spatiotemporal patterns and risks of herd breakdowns in pigs with postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome. Vet Rec. 160 751-762


Publications 2006


JM Read, MJ Keeling (2006) Disease evolution across a range of spatio-temporal scales. Theo. Pop. Biol. 70, 201-213

NJ Savill, SG St Rose, MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse (2006) Silent spread of H5N1 in vaccinated poultry. Nature 442, 757

KTD Eames, MJ Keeling (2006) Coexistence and specialization of pathogen strains on contact networks. Am. Nat. 168, 230-241

PA Hancock, EJ Milner-Gulland, MJ Keeling (2006) Modelling the many-wrongs principle: The navigational advantages of aggregation in nomadic foragers. J. Theo. Biol. 240, 302-310

MJ Tildesley, NJ Savill, DJ Shaw, R Deardon, SP Brooks, MEJ Woolhouse, BT Grenfell, MJ Keeling (2006) Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. Nature 440, 83-86  

NJ Savill, DJ Shaw, R Deardon, MJ Tildesley, MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse, SP Brooks, BT Grenfell (2006) Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic. BMC Veterinary Research 2, art. no. 3


Publications 2005


MJ Keeling (2005). The implications of network structure for epidemic dynamics . Theo. Pop. Biol 67, 1-8.

MJ Keeling (2005). Models of Foot-and-Mouth Disease. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 272, 1195-1202.

MJ Keeling, KTD Eames (2005). Networks and Epidemic Models. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 2, 295-307.

HJ Wearing, P Rohani, MJ Keeling (2005). Appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases . PLoS Medicine 2, 621-627.

PA Hancock, EJ Milner-Gulland, MJ Keeling (2005). An individual based model of bearded pig abundance . Ecological Modelling 181, 123-137.


Publications 2004


KTD Eames, MJ Keeling (2004). Monogamous networks and the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Math Biosci 189, 115-130.

MJ Keeling, SP Brooks, CA Gilligan (2004). Using conservation of pattern to estimate spatial parameters from a singles snapshot. Proc Nat Acad Sci 101, 9155-9160.

P Rohani, O Miramontes, MJ Keeling (2004). The colour of noise in short ecological time series data. Math Med & Biol 21, 63-72.


Publications 2003


KTD Eames, MJ Keeling (2003). Contact tracing and disease control. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 270, 2565-2571.

NM Ferguson, MJ Keeling, WJ Edmunds, R Gani, BT Grenfell, RM Anderson, S Leach (2003). Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature 425, 681-685.

MJ Keeling, F Jiggins, JM Read (2003). The invasion and coexistence of competing Wolbachia strains. Heredity 91, 382-388.

MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse, RM May, G Davies, BT Grenfell (2003). Modelling Vaccination Strategies Against Foot-and-Mouth Disease. Nature 421, 136-142.

JM Read, MJ Keeling (2003). Disease evolution on networks: the role of contact structure. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 270, 699-708.

MJ Keeling, ON Bjornstad, BT Grenfell (2003). Metapopulation Dynamics of Infectious Diseases in Metapopulation Dynamics, I Hanski, OE Gaggiotti (ed.), Elsevier Press, pp 415-446.


Publications 2002


KTD Eames, MJ Keeling (2002). Modeling dynamic and network heterogeneities in the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. PNAS 99, 13330-13335.

M.J. Keeling (2002). Using Individual-based Simulations to Test the Levins Metapopulation Paradigm. J. Animal Ecology 71, 270-279.

M.J. Keeling, B.T. Grenfell (2002). Understanding the Persistence of Measles: Reconciling Theory, Simulation and Observation. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 269, 335-343.

M.J. Keeling, H.B. Wilson, S.W. Pacala (2002). Deterministic limits to stochastic, spatial models of natural enemies. Am. Nat. 159, 57-80.

MJ Keeling, P Rohani (2002). Estimating Spatial Coupling in Epidemiological Systems: a Mechanistic Approach. Ecology Letters 5, 20-29.

P. Rohani, M.J. Keeling, B.T. Grenfell (2002). The Interplay Between Determinism and Stochasticity in Childhood Diseases. Am. Nat. 159, 469-481.


Publications 2001


MJ Keeling, P Rohani, BT Grenfell (2001). Seasonally-forced Disease Dynamics Explored as Switching Between Attractors. Physcia D 148, 317-335.

MJ Keeling, MEJ Woolhouse, DJ Shaw, L Matthews, M Chase-Topping, DT Haydon, SJ Cornell, J Kappey, J Wilesmith, BT Grenfell (2001). Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape. Science 294, 813-817.

M Woolhouse, M Chase-Topping, D Haydon, J Friar, L Matthews, G Hughes, D Shaw, J Wilesmith, A Donaldson, S Cornell, M Keeling & B Grenfell (2001). Foot-and-mouth disease under control in the UK. Nature 414, 258-258.

MJ Keeling, DA Rand (2001). Spatial Correlations and Local Fluctuations in Host Parasite Systems in From Finite to Infinite Dimensional Dynamics Systems, JC Robinson, PA Glendinning (ed.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp5-57


Publications 2000


Keeling (2000) Evolutionary Trade-Offs at Two Time Scales: Competition v Persistence Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 267 385-391

Keeling and Grenfell (2000) Individual-based perspectives on R0 J. Theo. Biol. 203, 51-61

Keeling (2000) Multiplicative Moments and Measures of Persistence in Ecology J. Theor. Biol. 205, 269-281

Keeling (2000) Simple Stochastic Models and their Power-law Type Behaviour Theo. Pop. Biol. 58 21-31

Keeling (2000) Metapopulation moments: coupling, stochasticity and persistence J. Animal Ecology 69 725-736

Keeling and Gilligan (2000) Metapopulation dynamics of bubonic plague Nature 407 903-906

Keeling and Gilligan (2000) Bubonic Plague: A Metapopulation Model of a Zoonosis Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 267 2219-2230

Keeling, Wilson and Pacala (2000) Re-interpreting Space, Time-lags and Functional Responses in Ecological Models Science 290 1758-1761

Price, Keeling and O'Callaghan (1999) Ocean-scale Patterns of Biodiversity and Community Structure. Biological J. Linnean Soc. 66 187-203


Publications 1995-1999


Keeling (1999) The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 266 859-869

Keeling (1999) Correlation equations for endemic diseases, Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 266 953-961

Keeling and Grenfell (1999) Stochastic Dynamics and a power law for measles variability Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 354 769-776

Keeling, Milner-Gulland and Clayton (1998) Spatial dynamics of two harvested wild pig populations Natural Resource Modelling 12 147-169

Finkenstadt, Keeling and Grenfell (1998) Patterns of density dependence in measles dynamics. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B. 265 753-762

Keeling and Grenfell (1997) Disease Extinction and Community Size: Modeling the Persistence of Measles Science 275 65-67

Keeling, Mezic, Hendry, McGlade and Rand (1997) Characteristic Length Scales of Spatial Models in Ecology via Fluctuation Analysis Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 352 1589-1601

Keeling, Rand and Morris (1997) Correlation Models for Childhood Diseases Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 264 1149-1156

Keeling and Grenfell (1997) Impact of Variability in Infection Period on the Persistence and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases Math BioSciences 147 206-227

Clayton, Keeling and Milner-Gulland (1997) Bringing Home the Bacon: A Spatial Model of Wild Pig Harvesting in Sulawesi, Indonesia Ecological Applications 7 642-652

Keeling (1997) Modelling the Persistence of Measles Trends in MicroBiology 5 513-518

Rand, Keeling and Wilson (1995) Invasion, Stability and Evolution to Criticality in Spatially Extended Artificial Host-Pathogen Ecologies Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 259 55-63

Keeling and Rand (1995) A Spatial Mechanism for the Evolution and Maintenance of Sexual Reproduction Oikos 74 414-424