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The CRiSM Working Paper Series are pre-publication versions of research reports associated with the Centre's staff, research students and visitors.


CRiSM Working Paper Series

Series Editor: Professor Gareth Roberts


No. 17-01 Honnor TR, Brettschneider JA, Johansen AM. Differences in spatial point patterns with application to subcellular biological structures

No. 17-02 Brettschneider JA, Warnett JW, Nichols TE and Kendall WS. Higher level spatial analysis of dead pixels on detectors based on local grid geometry

No. 17-03 Honnor TR, Johansen AM and Brettschneider JA. A nonparametric test for dependency between estimated local bulk movement patterns


No. 16-01 Fúquene J, Steel M and Rossell D. On choosing mixture components via non-local priors

No. 16-02 Papavasiliou A and Taylor K. Approximate likelihood construction for rough differential equations

No. 16-03 Rubio FJ and Steel M. Flexible linear mixed models with improper priors for longitudinal and survival data

No. 16-04 Forte A, García-Donato G and Steel FJ. Methods and tools for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in univariate linear regression

No. 16-05 Barons MJ, Wright SK and Smith JQ. Eliciting the probabilistic judgements for intergrating decision support systems.


No. 15-01 Griffin JE, Latuszynski KL and Steel MFJ Individual adaptation: an adaptive MCMC scheme for variable selection problems

No. 15-02 Collazo RA and Smith JQ A new family of Non-Local Priors for Chain Event Graph model selection

No. 15-03 Fuglstad GA, Simpson D, Lindgren F and Rue H Interpretable Priors for Hyperparameters for Gaussian Random Fields

No. 15-04 Medina-Aguayo FJ, Lee A and Roberts GO Stability of Noisy Metropolis-Hastings

No. 15-05 Papavasiliou A and Zhang F Maximum likelihood estimation for multiscale Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Processes

No. 15-06 Görgen C, Leonelli M and Smith JQ A differential approach for staged trees

No. 15-07 Leonelli M, Smith JQ, Riccomagno E Using computer algebra to symbolically evaluate discrete influence diagrams

No. 15-08 Leonelli M, Riccomagno E, Smith JQ The algebra of integrated partial belief systems

No. 15-09 Thwaites PA and Smith JQ A new method for tracking asymmetric decision problems

No. 15-10 Smith, JQ, Barons MJ and Leonelli M Coherent frameworks for statistical inference serving integrating decision support systems

No. 15-11 Smith, JQ, Barons MJ and Leonelli M Decision focused inference on networked probabilistic systems: with applications to food security

No. 15-12 Görgen, C and Smith JQ Equivalence classes of staged trees


No. 14-01 Ogden H. Robustness properties of marginal composite likelihood estimators.

No. 14-02 Ge T, Muller-Lenke N, Bendfeldt K, Nichols TE, Johnson TD Anaylsis of Multiple Sclerosis Lesions via Spatially Varying Coefficients

No. 14-03 Finke A, Johansen AM and Spano D Static-parameter estimation in piecewise deterministic processes using particle Gibbs samplers

No. 14-04 Barclay LM, Smith JQ, Thwaites PA and Nicholson AE The Dynamic Chain Event Graph

No. 14-05 Connor SB and Kendall WS Perfect Simulation M/G/c Queues

No. 14-06 Filippone M and Girolami M Pseudo-Marginal Bayesian Inference for Guassian Processes, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence

No. 14-07 Oates CJ, Smith JQ, Mukherjee S and Cussens J Exact Estimation of Multiple Directed Acyclic Graphs

No. 14-08 Oates CJ, Carneiro da Costa T and Nichols TE Towards a Multi-Subject Analysis of Neural Connectivity

No. 14-09 Oates CJ, Papamarkou T and Girolami M The controlled thermodynamic integral for Bayesian model comparison

No. 14-10 Rossell D and Telesca D Non-Local Priors for High-Dimensional Estimation

No. 14-11 De Blasi P, Ruggiero M and Spano D Inhomogeneous Wright-Fisher construction of two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet diffusions

No. 14-12 Koslea J, Jenkins P and Spano D Computational inference beyond Kingman's coalescent

No. 14-13 Craiu RV, Lawrence G, Latuszynski KL, Madras N, Roberts GO and Rosenthal JS Stability of Adversarial Markov Chains, with an application to Adaptive MCMC Algorithms

No. 14-14 Fuquene JA A Semiparametric Bayesian Extreme Value Model Using a Dirichlet Process Mixture of Gamma Densities

No. 14-15 Leonelli M and Smith JQ Bayesian Decision Support for Complex Systems with Many Distributed Experts

No. 14-16 Vallejos CA and Steel MFJ Bayesian Survival Modelling of University Outcomes

No. 14-17 Hey K, Momiji H, Featherstone K, David J, White M, Rand D and Finkenstadt B Inference for a transcriptional stochastic switch model from single cell imaging data

No. 14-18 Barons MJ, Zhong X and Smith JQ Dynamic Bayesian Networks for decision support and sugar food security

No. 14-19 Friel N, Mira A and Oates CJ Exploiting Multi-Core Architectures for Reduced-Variance Estimation with Intractable Likelihoods

No. 14-20 Vallejos CA and Steel MJL Incorporating unobserved heterogeneity in Weibull survival modes: A Bayesian approach

No. 14-21 Zanella G Bayesian Complementary Clustering, MCMC and Ango-Saxon Placenames

No. 14-22 Oates CJ, Girolami M and Chopin N Control Functionals for Monte Carlo Integration

No. 14-23 Underhill N and Smith JQ Context-dependent score based Bayesian information criteria

No. 14-24 Brettschneider JA, Thornby J, Nichols TE and Kendall WS Spatial analysis of dead pixels

No. 14-25 Kueh A, Kendall WS and Nichols TE Modelling the Penumbra in Computed Tomography

No. 14-26 Oates CJ, Smith JQ and Mukherjee S Estimating causal structure using conditional DAG models

No. 14-27 Jenkins PJ and Spano D Exact simulation of the Wright-Fisher diffusion

No. 14-28 Rahaman Khan Md H and Shaw JEH Variable Selection with The Modified Buckley-James Method and The Dantzig Selector for High-dimensional Survival Data


No. 13-01 Vallejos CA and Steel MFJ. Objective Bayesian Survival Analysis using Shape Mixtures of Log-Normal Distributions.

No. 13-02 Leonelli M and Smith JQ. Using Graphical Models and Multi-attribute Utility Theory for Probabilistic Uncertainy Handling in Large Systems, with Application to the Nuclear Emergency Management. 2013 IEEE 29th International Conference on Data Engineering Workshops (ICDEW), pp181-192.

No. 13-03 Oates C and Mukherjee S. Joint estimation of multiple networks from time course data.

No. 13-04 Zhou Y, Johansen AM and Aston JAD. Towards Automatic Model Comparison an Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo Approach.

No. 13-05 Nam CFH, Aston JAD, Eckley IA and Killick R. The Uncertainty of Storm Season Changes: Quantifying the Uncertainty of Autocovariance Changepoints.

No. 13-06 Costa L, Smith JQ and Nichols TE. On the Selection of Multigression Dynamic Models of fMRI networked time series.

No. 13-07 Khan MHR and Shaw JEH. On Dealing with Censored Largest Observations under Weighted Least Squares.

No. 13-08 Minas G, Aston JAD and Stallard N. Adaptive multivariate global testing.

No. 13-09 Rahman Khan MH and Shaw JEH. Robust bias estimation for Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimator with Jackknifing.

No. 13-10 Rubio FJ and Steel MFJ. Bayesian modelling of skewness and kurtosis with two-piece scale and shape transformations.

No. 13-11 Lamnisos D, Griffin JE and Steel MFJ. Adaptic MC3 and Gibbs Algorithms for Bayesian Model Averaging in Linear Regression Models.

No. 13-12 Pollock M, Johansen AM and Roberts GO. On the Exact and E-Strong Simulation of (Jump) Diffusions.

No. 13-13 Latuszynski K and Rosenthal JS. The Containment Condition and AdapFail algorithms.

No. 13-14 Cowell RG and Smith JQ. Causal discovery through MAP selection of stratified chain event graphs.

No. 13-15 Vallejos CA and Steel MFJ. On posterior propriety for the Student-t linear regression model under Jeffreys priors.

No. 13-16 Leonelli M and Smith JQ. Dynamic Uncertainty Handling for Coherent Decision Making in Nuclear Emergency Response.

No. 13-17 Hasinur Rahaman Khan MD and Shaw JEH. Variable Selection for Surival Data with a Class of Adaptive Elastic Net Techniques.

No. 13-18 Pigoli D, Menafoglio A and Secchi P. Kriging prediction for manifold-valued random field.

No. 13-19 Varin C, Cattelan M and Firth D. Statistical Modelling of Citation Exchange Among Statistics Journals. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A.

No. 13-20 Costa L, Smith JQ, Nichols TE and Cussens J. Searching Multiregression Dynamic Models of Resting-Stat fMRI Networks using Integer Programming.

No. 13-21 Ogden H. A sequential reduction method for inference in generalized linear mixed models.


No. 12-01 Chakrabarty D, Biswas M and Bhattacharya S. Bayesian Inverse Learning of Milky Way Model Parameters using New Matrix-Variate Gaussian Process-Based Method.

No. 12-02 Cotter SL, Roberts GO, Stuart AM and White D. MCMC Methods for Functions, Modifying Old Algorithms to make them faster.

No. 12-03 Finkenstadt BFF, Woodcock DJ, Komorowski M, Harper CV, Davis JRE, White MRH, Rand DA. Quantifying intrinsic and extrinsic noise in gene transcription: an application to single cell imaging data.

No. 12-04 Rubio FJ and Johansen AM. On Maximum Intractable Likelihood Estimation.

No. 12-05 Ogundimu EO and Hutton JL. A general sample selection model with Skew-normal distribution.

No. 12-06 Barclay LM, Hutton JL and Smith JQ. Embellishing a Bayesian Network using a Chain Event Graph.

No. 12-07 Oates C and Mukherjee S. Structural inference using nonlinear dynamics.

No. 12-08 Hutton JL and Ogundimu EO. A note on two-parameter generalized skew-normal distribution.

No. 12-09 Chakrabarty C. Detection of bistable phase space of a real galaxy, using a new non-parametric Bayesian test of hypothesis.

No. 12-10 Sorrentino A, Johansen AM, Aston JAD, Nichols TE and Kendall WS. Dynamic filtering of Static Dipoles in MagnetoEncephaoGraphy.

No. 12-11 Shiers N and Smith JQ. Graphical inequality diagnostics for phylogenetic trees.

No. 12-12 Spano D and Lijoi A. Canonical correlations for dependent gamma processes.

No. 12-13 Fassino C, Pistone G and Riccomagno E. The Algebra of Quadrature Forumlae for Generic Nodes.

No. 12-14 Pigoli D, Aston JAD, Dryden IL and Secchi P. Distances and Inference for Covariance Functions.

No. 12-15 Zwiernik P and Smith JQ. The Dependence of Routine Bayesian Model Selection Methods on Irrelevant Alternatives.

No. 12-16 Alili L, Graczy P and Zak T. On inversions and Doob h-transforms of linear diffusions.

No. 12-17 Barclay LM, Hutton JL and Smith JQ. Chain Event Graphs for Informed Missingness.

No. 12-18 Lee A and Latuszysnki K. Variance bounding and geometric ergodicity of Markov chain Monte Carlo kernels for approximate Bayesian computation.

No. 12-19 Ogundimu EO and Hutton JL. A Unified Approach to Multilevel Sample Selection Models.

No. 12-20 Liverani S and Smith JQ. Bayesian Selection of Graphical Regulatory Models.

No. 12-21 Alili L and Patie P. Boundary Crossing Identities for Brownian Motion and some Non Linear ODE's.

No. 12-22 Leonelli M and Smith JQ. Using graphical modeling and multi-attribute utility theory for uncertainty handling in large systems.

No. 12-23 Nam CFH, Aston JAD and Johansen AM. Parellel sequential Monte Carlo samplers and estimation of the number of states in a Hiddden Markov Model.

No. 12-24 Spencer SEF, Hill SM and Mukherjee S. Dynamic Bayesian networks for interventional data.


No. 11-01 Costa MJ, Finkenstadt BF and Gould PD. Estimating Periodicity of Oscillatory Time Series through Resampling Techniques.

No. 11-02 Latuszynski K, Miasojedow and Niemiro W. Nonasymptotic bounds on the mean square error for MCMC estimates via renewal techniques. Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods 2010, Springer, to appear.

No. 11-03 Latuszynski K, Roberts GO and Rosenthal JS. Adaptive Gibbs samplers and related MCMC methods. Annals of Applied Probability, 2011.

No. 11-04 Latuszynski K and Roberts GO. CLTs and asymptotic variance of time-sampled Markov chains.
Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, 2011.

No. 11-05 Jacka SD, Warren J and Windridge P. Minisming the time to a decision.

No. 11-06 Jacka SD. A simple proof of Kramkov's result on uniform supermartingale decompositions.

No. 11-07 Aston JAD and Kirch C. Detecting and estimating epidemic changes in dependent functional data.

No. 11-08 Pillai NS, Stuart AM and Thiery AH. Optimal Scaling and Diffusion Limits for the Langevin Algorithm in High Dimensions.

No. 11-09 Thwaites PA and Smith JQ. Separation Theorems for Chain Event Graphs.

No. 11-10 Woodcock DJ, Komorowski M, Finkenstadt BF, Harper CV, David JRE, White MRH and Rand DA. A Bayesian hierarchical diffusion model for estimating kinetic parameters and cell-to-cell variability.

No. 11-11 Zwiernik P and Smith JQ. Implicit inequality constraints in a binary tree model.

No. 11-12 Smith JQ and Dodd L. Regulating Autonomous Agents facing Conflicting Objectives: A Command and Control Example.

No. 11-13 Rubio FJ and Steel MFJ. Inference in Two-Piece Location-Scale models with Jeffreys Priors.

No. 11-14 Firth D. On Improved Estimation for Importance Sampling. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics 25, 437–443.

No. 11-15 Thwaites PA. Using Chain Event Graphs to refine model selection.

No. 11-16 Thwaites PA. Causal identifiability via Chain Event Graphs.

No. 11-17 Aston JAD and Kirch C. Estimation of the distribution of change-points with application to fMRI data.

No. 11-18 Hill B, Kendall WS and Thonnes E. A Gradient Field Approach to Modelling Fibre-Generated Spatial Point Processes. 58th Congress of ISI, Dublin, 21st-26th August 2011, 2011, p.4.

No. 11-19 Nam CFH, Aston JADA and Johansen AM. Quantifying the Uncertainty in Change Points.

No. 11-20 Thwaites PA and Smith JQ. A Graphical method for simplifying Bayesian games.

No. 11-21 Goudie RJB and Mukherjee S. An efficient Gibbs sampler for structural inference in Bayesian networks.

No. 11-22 Minas G, Rigat F, Nichols T, Aston J and Stallard N. A hybrid procedure for detecting Global Treatment Effects in Multivariate Clinical Trials Theory and Applications to fMRI Studies. Statistics in Medicine, 31-253-268 (2012)

No. 11-23 Laytuszynski K, Miasojewdow B and Niemiro W. Nonasymptotic bounds on the estimation of MCMC algorithms.

No. 11-24 Rubio FJ and Steel MFJ. On the Marshall-Olkin transformation as a skewing mechanism. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, forthcoming.

No. 11-25 Hill BJ, Kendall WS and Thonnes E. Fibre-Generated Point Processes and Fields of Orientations. Annals of Applied Statistics, vol. (accepted subject to revision), no. arXiv 1109.0701, p.31, 2011.

No. 11-26 Zhou Y, Aston JAD and Johansen AM. Bayesian Model Comparison for Compartmental Models with Applications in Positron Emission Tomography.

No. 11-27 Hadjipantelis PZ, Aston JAD and Evans JP. Characterizing fundamental frequency in Mandarin: A functional principal component approach utilising mixed effect models.

No. 11-28 Blath J, Gonzalez Casanova A, Kurt N and Spano D. On the ancestral process of long-range seedbank models.

No. 11-29 Chakrabarty D, Gabrielyan N, Paul S, Rigat F and Beanland R. Bayesian Learning of Material Density and the Blurring Function, given 2-D images taken with bulk Microscopy Techniques.

No. 11-30 Oates CJ and Mukherjee S. Network Inference and Biological Dynamics.

No. 11-31 Rubio FJ and Steel MFJ. Bayesian Inference for P (X<Y) using Asymmetric Dependent Distributions.

No. 11-32 Chakrabarty D. Galactic Phase Spaces.


No. 10-01 Kolossiatis M, Griffin JE and Steel MFJ. Modelling overdispersion with the Normalized Tempered Stable distribution. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 55, (2011), 2288-2301.

No. 10-02 Latuszynski K and Rosenthal JS. Adaptive Gibbs samplers.

No. 10-03 Zwiernik P and Smith JQ. The Geometry of Independence Tree Models with Hidden Variables. Electronic Journal of Statistics (to appear).

No. 10-04 Mazzetta C, Morgan BJT and Coulson T. A state-space modelling approach to population size estimation.

No. 10-05 Papavasiliou A. Coarse-grained modelling of multiscale diffusions: the p-variation estimates.

No. 10-06 Zwiernik P. Asymptotic model selection and identifiability or directed tree models with hidden variables.

No. 10-07 Griffiths RC and Spano D. n-Kernel Orthogonal Polynomials on the Dirichlet, Dirichlet-Multinomial, Poisson-Dirichlet and Ewens sampling distributions, and positive-definite sequences.

No. 10-08 Akacha M and Hutton JL. Modelling the rate of change in a longitudinal study with missing data, adjusting the contact attempts.

No. 10-09 Akacha M, Hutton JL and Lamb SE. Modelling Treatment, Age-and Gender-Specific Recovery in Acute Injury Studies.

No. 10-10 Kosmidis I and Karlis D. Supervised sampling for clustering large data sets.

No. 10-11 Riccomagno E, Smith JQ and Thwaites P. Algebraic discrete causal models.

No. 10-12 Didelot X, Everitt RG, Johansen AM and Lawson DJ. Likelihood-free estimation of model evidence. Bayesian Analysis, 6(1):49-74, March 2011.

No. 10-13 Smith JQ and Freeman G. Distributional Kalman filters for Bayesian forecasting and closed form recurrences. Journal of Forecasting, Vol 30, No. 1 210-224.

No. 10-14 Freeman G and Smith JQ. Dynamic staged trees for discrete multivariate time series: forecasting, model selection and causal analysis. Bayesian Analysis, Vol. 06, No. 02, 279-306.

No. 10-15 Cowell RG, Thwaites P and Smith JQ. Decision making with decision event graphs.

No. 10-16 Kosmidis I and Firth D. A generic algorithm for reducing bias in parametric estimation. Electronic Journal of Statistics, vol 4 (2010), 1097-1112 URL:

No. 10-17 Dodd L and Smith JQ. Devolving Command Decisions in Complex Operations. Journal of the Operational Research Society (to appear 2012).

No. 10-18 Kosmidis I and Firth D. Multinomial logit bias reduction via Poisson log-linear model. Biometrika 98, 755–759.

No. 10-19 Cattelan M, Varin C and Firth D. Dynamic Bradley-Terry Modelling of Sports tournaments. Now accepted for publication in the Journal of Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics)

No. 10-20 Rubio FJ and Steel MFJ. Inference for grouped data with a truncated skew-Laplace distribution. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 55, (2011), 3218-3231.

No. 10-21 Kaddoum G, Lawrance AJ, Charge P and Roviras D. Chaos Communication Performance: Theory and Computation.

No. 10-22 Kolossiatis M, Griffin JE and Steel MFJ. On Bayesian nonparametric modelling of two correlated distributions. Statistics and Computing, forthcoming.

No. 10-23 Ley E and Steel MFJ. Mixtures of g-priors for Bayesian Model Averaging with Economic Applications. Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming.

No. 10-24 Griffin JE, Kolossiastis M and Steel MFJ. Comparing Distributions Using Dependent Normalized Random Measure Mixtures.


No. 09-01 Papavasiliou A and Ladroue C. Parameter Estimation for Rough Differential Equations.

No. 09-02 Copas JB and Lozada-Can Claudia. The Radial Plot in Meta Analysis: Approximations and Applications.

No. 09-03 Copas JB. Likelihood for Statistically Equivalent Models.

No. 09-04 Marshall T and Roberts GO. An erogdicity result for adaptive Langevin algorithms.

No. 09-05 Griffin JE and Steel MFJ. Time-Dependent Stick-Breaking Processes.

No. 09-06 Freeman G and Smith JQ. Bayesian MAP Model Selection of Chain Event Graphs. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 102, 1152-1165.

No. 09-07 Thwaites PA, Freeman G and Smith JQ. Chain Event Graph MAP Model selection. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 102, 1152-1165.

No. 09-08 Smith JQ, Riccomagno E and Thwaites PA. Causal analysis with Chain Event Graphs. Journal of Artificial Intelligence, 174, 889-909.

No. 09-09 Roberts GO and Rosenthal JS. Quantitative Non-Geometric Convergence Bounds for Independence Samplers. Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, 2, 391-403, 2011.

No. 09-10 Sherlock C and Roberts GO. Optimal scaling of the random walk Metropolis on elliptically symmetric unimodal targets. Bernoulli, 3, 774-798, 2009.

No. 09-11 Jiang CR, Aston JAD and Wang JL. Smoothing dynamic positron emission tomography time courses using functional principal components. NeuroImage, Vol. 47, Pages 184-193.

No. 09-12 Yau C, Papaspiliopoulos O, Roberts GO and Holmes C. Bayesian Nonparametric hidden Markov models with application to the analysis of copy-number-variation in mammalian genomes. Journal Royal Statistical Soc., series B, 1, 35-57, 2011.

No. 09-13 Mattingly JC, McKinley SA and Pillai NS. Geometric ergodicity of a bead-spring pair with stochastic Stokes forcing.

No. 09-14 Li WV, Pillai NS and Wolpert RL. On the supremum of certain families of Stochastic.

No. 09-15 Bai Y, Roberts GO and Rosenthal JS. On the containment condition for adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Adv. Applied Statistics, 1-54, 2011.

No. 09-16 Sherlock C, Fearnhead P and Roberts GO. The random walk Metropolis: linking theory and practice through a case study. Statistical Science, 2, 172-190, 2010.

No. 09-17 Jacks SD. Markov Chains conditioned never to wait too long at the origin.

No. 09-18 Liverani S, Cussens J and Smith JQ. Searching a multivariate partition space using weighted MAX-SAT. CIBB 2009, F.Masulli, L. Peterson, and R. Tagliaferri (Eds), LNBI 6160, 240-253. Springer, Heidelberg.

No. 09-19 Mattingly JC, Pillai NS and Stuart AM. SPDE limits of the random walk Metropolis algorithm in high dimensions.

No. 09-20 Mazzetta C. Age-specificity in conditional ring-recovery models.

No. 09-21 Alexander KS and Zygouras N. Quenched and annealed critical points in polymer pinning models.

No. 09-22 Alexander KS and Zygouras N. Equality of critical points for polymer depinning transitions with loop exponent one.

No. 09-23 Latuszynski K, Maisojedow B and Wojciech N. Nonasymptotic bounds on the estimation error for regenerative MCMC algorithms under a drift condition.

No. 09-24 Guan SL, Bonnett L and Brettschneider J. Using gene subsets in the assessment of microarray data quality for time course experiments.

No. 09-25 Lamnisos D, Griffin JE and Steel MFJ. Cross-validation prior choice in Bayesian probit regression with many covariates. Statistics and Computing, 22, (2012), 359-373.

No. 09-26 Kuha J and Firth D. On the index of dissimilarity for lack of fit in loglinear and log-multiplicative models.

No. 09-27 Cart A and Steel MFJ. Modelling Multi-ouput stochatic frontiers using copulas. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, forthcoming.

No. 09-28 Papaspiliopoulos O and Roberts GO. Importance sampling techniques for estimatino of diffusion models.

No. 09-29 Pokern Y, Papaspiliopoulos, Roberts GO and Stuart AM. Nonparametric Bayesian drift estimation for one-dimensional diffusion processes.

No. 09-30 Latuszynski K, Kosmidis I, Papaspiliopoulos O and Roberts GO. Simulating Events of Unknown Probabilities via Reverse Time Martingales. Random Structures and Algorithms, 38 (4), 442-453, 2011.

No. 09-31 Papaspiliopoulos O. A methodological framework for Monte Carlo probabilistic inference for diffusion processes.

No. 09-32 Zwiernik P and Smith JQ. The Geometry and Independence tree models with hidden variables. Bernoulli (to appear).

No. 09-33 Da Fonseca TCO and Steel MFJ. Non-Gaussian Spatiotemporal Modelling through Scale Mixing. Biometrika, 98, (2011), 761-774.

No. 09-34 Akacha M and Benda N. The Impact of Dropouts on the Analysis of Dose-Finding Studies with Recurrent Event Data.

No. 09-35 Latuszynski K and Niemiro W. Rigorous confidence bounds for MCMC under a geometric drift condition. Journal of Complexity, 27(1), pp. 23-38 (2011).

No. 09-36 Kosmidis I. On iterative adjustment of responses for the reduction of bias in binary regression models.

No. 09-37 Rigat F and Mira A. Parallel hierarchical sampling: a general-purpose class of multiple-chains MCMC algorithms.

No. 09-38 Hairer M and Pillai NS. Ergodicity of hypoelliptic SDEs drive by fractional Brownian motion.

No. 09-39 Hutton JL and Stanghellini E. Modelling health scores with the skew-normal distribution.

No. 09-40 Griffiths RC and Spano D. Diffusion processes and coalescent trees.

No. 09-41 Lamnisos D, Griffin JE and Steel MFJ. Adaptive Monte Carlo for Binary Regressio with Many Regressors.

No. 09-42 Akacha M and Hutton JL. Analysing the rate of change in a longitudinal study with missing data, taking into account the number of contact attempts.

No. 09-43 Kendall WS. Geodesics and flows in a Poissonian city. Annals of Applied Probability, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 801-842, Oct 2011.

No. 09-44 Rogers J, Hutton JL and Hemming K. Joint Modelling of Event Counts and Survival Times.

No. 09-45 Varin C, Reid N and Firth D. An overview of composite likelihood methods. Statistica Sinica, vol 21 (2011), pages 5-42.

No. 09-46 Akacha M, Da Fonseca T and Liverani S. First CLADAG Data Mining Prize: Data Mining for Longitudinal Data with Different Marketing Campaigns.

No. 09-47 Chakrabarty D. Different Tracers given Different Graviational Mass Distributions.


No. 08-01 Alili L and Patie P. Boundary Crossing Identities for Self-Similar Diffusions having the time inversion property.

No. 08-02 Costa MJ and Shaw JEH. Parametrization and Penalties in Spline Models with an Application to Survival Analysis.

No. 08-03 Connor S and Jacka SD. Optimal Co-adapted Coupling for the Symmetric Random Walk on the Hypercube. Journal of Applied Probability, 45, 703-713 (2008).

No. 08-04 Smith JQ, Anderson PE and Liverani S. Clustering with Proportional Scaling.

No. 08-05 Kosmidis I and Firth D. Bias Reduction in Exponential Family Nonlinear Models. Biometrika 

No. 08-06 Thwaites PA, Smith JQ and Cowell RG. Propagation using Chain Event Graphs. Proceedings of the 24th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Editors D. McAllester and P. Myllymaki, Helsinki, (2008), 546-553.

No. 08-07 Marshall T and Roberts GO. Perfect Bayesian Inference for discretely-observed diffusion processes.

No. 08-08 Lamnisos D, Griffin JE and Steel MFJ. Transdimensional sampling algorithms for Bayesian variable selection in classification problems with many more variables than observations.

No. 08-09 Smith JQ, Dodd L and Moffat J. Devolving Command under Conflicting Military Objectives.

No. 8-10 Su J, Hill B, Kendall WS and Thonnes E. Inference for point processes with unobserved one-dimensional reference structure.

No. 8-11 Martin, DEK and Aston JAD. Waiting time distribution of generalized later patterns. Computational Statistics and Analysis, Vol. 52, Issue. 11, (2008), 4874-4890.

No. 08-12 Smith JQ and Daneshkhah A. Large incomplete sample robustness in Bayesian networks. Proceedings of the 4th European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models, Eds M. Jaeger and T.D. Nielsen, Hirtshals, Denmark, (2008), 265-272.

No. 08-13 Fonseca TCO and Steel MFJ. A new class of nonseparable space-time covariance models.

No. 08-14 Pelcuhetti S and Roberts GO. An empirical study of the efficiency of EA for diffusion simulation. To appear in Proceedings of MCQMC 2008, 2012.

No. 08-15 Goldschmidt C, Martin JB and Spano D. Fragmenting random permutations.

No. 08-16 Jewell CP, Keeling MJ and Roberts GO. Predicting infected but undetected infections during the 2007 Foot-and-Mouth Disease outbreak.

No. 8-17 Favaro S, Riggiero N, Spano D and Walker SG. The neutral population model and Bayesian non-parametrics.

No. 8-18 Peluchetti S, Roberts GO and Casella B. The strong weak convergence of the Quasi-EA. To appear in Queueing systems, 2012.

No. 08-19 Casella B and Roberts GO. Exact simulation of jump-diffusion processes with Monte Carlo applications. Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, 3, 449-473, 2011.

No. 08-20 Papaspiliopoulos O. A note on posterior sampling from Dirichlet mixture models.

No. 08-21 Riccomagno E. A short history of algebraic statistics.

No. 08-22 Liverani S, Anderson PE, Edwards KD, Millar AJ and Smith JQ. Efficient Utility-based Clustering over High Dimensional Partition Spaces. Journal of Bayesian Analysis, Vol. 4, No. 3 pp539-572.

No. 08-23 Griffin JE and Steel MFJ. Bayesian inference with stochastic volatility models using continuous superpositions of non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes.

No. 08-24 Griffiths RC and Spano D. Multivariate Jacobi and Laguerre polynomials, infinite-dimensional extensions, and their probabilistic connections with multivariate Hahn and Meixner polynomials.

No. 08-25 Aston JAD, Chiou JM and Evans JE. Linguistic Pitch Analysis using Functional Principal Component Mixed Effect Models.

No. 08-26 Aston JAD, Peng JY and Martin DEK. Implied Distributions in Multiple Change Point Problems.

No. 08-27 Papavasiliou A, Pavliotis GA and Stuart AM. Maximum likelihood Drift Estimation for Multiscale Diffusions.

No. 08-28 Smith JQ and Daneshkhah A. On the Robustness of Bayesian Networks to Learning from Non-conjugate Sampling.


No. 07-01 Copas JB and Lozada C. Asymptotic Approximations for the Radial Plot in Meta Analysis, and a Bias Correction to the Egger Test.

No. 07-02 Griffin JE and Brown PJ. Bayesian adaptive lassos with non-convex penalization.

No. 07-03 Griffin JE. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Dirichlet Process and other time-varying processes for Bayesian
nonparametric inference.

No. 07-04 Parsons N, Smith JQ, Thonnes E and Wilson RL. Rotationally invariant statistics for examining the evidence from the pores in fingerprints. Law, Probability and Risk, 7, (2008) 1-14.

No. 07-05 Griffin JE and Steel MFJ. Bayesian Nonparametric modelling with the Dirichlet Process Regression Smoother.

No. 07-06 Rigat F and Muliere P. Beta-Stacy survival regression models.

No. 07-07 Rigat F and Smith JQ. Sequential change-point detection for time series models: assessing the functional dynamics of neuronal networks.

No. 07-08 Ley E and Steel MFJ. On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24, (2009), 651-674.

No. 07-09 Smith JQ. Local Robustness of Bayesian Parametric Inference and Observed Likelihoods.

No. 07-10 Jacka SD, Berkaoui A and Warren J. No Arbitrage and Closure Results for Trading Cones with Transaction Costs. Finance and Stochastics, 12, 583-600, (2008).

No. 07-11 Fearnhead P, Papaspiliopoulos O, Roberts GO and Stuart A. Filtering Systems of Coupled Stochastic Differential Equations partially observed at High Frequency.

No. 07-12 Hemming K and Hutton JL. Sensitivity Models for Missing Covariates in the Analysis of Survival Data from Multiple Surveys.

No. 07-13 Riccomagno E and Smith JQ. Algebraic Causality: Bayes Nets and Beyond.

No. 07-14 Riccomagno E and Smith JQ. The Causal Manipulation of Chain Event Graphs.

No. 07-15 Copas JB. The Radial Plot in Meta Analysis: Approximations and Applications.

No. 07-16 Batchelor A, Turner HL and Firth D. Nonlinear Discrete-Time Hazard Models for Entry into Marriage.

No. 07-17 Copas JB and Malley PF. A Robust P-value for Treatment Effect in Meta Analysis with Publication Bias.

No. 07-18 Quintana F, Steel MFJ and Ferreira JTAS. Flexible Univariate Continous Distributions.

No. 07-19 Jacka SD and Sheehan M. The Noisy Veto-Voter Model: A Recursive Distributional Equation on [0, 1]. Journal of Applied Probability, 45, 670-688, (2008).

No. 07-20 Jacka SD and Berkaoui AK. On Representing Claims for Coherent Risk Measures.

No. 07-21 Papaspiliopoulos O and Sermaidis G. Parametric Estimation of Discretely Observed Diffusions using the EM Algorithm.

No. 07-22 Smith JQ and Rigat F. Isoseparation and Robustnes in Finite Parameter Bayesian Inference.

No. 07-23 Berthelsen KK, Breyer LA and Roberts GO. Perfect Posterior Simulation for Mature and Hidden Markov Models.

No. 07-24 Papaspiliopoulos O and Sermaidis G. Monotonicity Properties of the Monte Carlo EM Algorithm and Connections with Simulated Likelihood.

No. 07-25 Kimani PK, Stallard N and Hutton JL. Dose Selection in Seamless Phase II/III Clinical Trials based on Efficacy and Toxicity.

No. 07-26 Cassella B and Roberts GO. Exact Monte Carlo Simulation of Killed Diffusions.

No. 07-27 Roberts GO and Sangalli LM. Latent Diffusion Models for Event History Analysis.


No. 06-01 M Henmi, JB Copas and S Eguchi. Confidence Intervals and P-valves for Meta Analysis with Publication Bias. Biometrics, 63, 475-482 (2007).

No. 06-02 KL Boyd and JL Hutton. Missing Covariate data in Parametric Survival Analysis - Modelling the Missing Data Mechanism.

No. 06-03 H Maruri-Aguilar, R Notari and E Riccomagno. On the description and identifiability analysis of experiments with mixtures.

No. 06-04 J Curtice and D Firth. Exit Polling in a cold climate: The BBC/ITV experience in Britain in 2005. Journal of the Royal Statisical Society A, 171, 509-539.

No. 06-05 MA Juarez and MFJ Steel. Non-Gaussian Dynamic Bayesian Modelling for Panel Data.

No. 06-06 JE Griffin and RCA Oomen. Covariance Measurement in the Presence of Non-Synchoronous Trading and Market Microstructure Noise.

No. 06-07 PE Anderson, JQ Smith, KD Edwards and AJ Millar. Guided Conjugate Bayesian Clustering for Uncovering Rhythmically Expressed Genes.

No. 06-08 PE Anderson and JQ Smith. Bayesian Representations Using Chain Event Graphs.

No. 06-09 E Riccomagno and JQ Smith. The geometry of causal probability trees that are algebraically constrained. Optimal Design and Related Areas in Optimization and Statistics, Eds L. Pronzato & A. Zhigljavsky, Springer 131-152 (2009).

No. 06-10 JQ Smith, PE Anderson and S Liverani. Separation Measures and the Geometry of Bayes Factor Selection for Classification. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, Vol. 70, Part 5, (2008), 957-980.

No. 06-11 WS Kendall, Y Shen and E Thonnes. N-fold way simulated tempering for pairwise interaction point processes.

No. 06-12 E Ley and MFJ Steel. Jointness in Bayesian Variable Selection with Applications to Growth Regression. Journal of Macroeconomics, 29 (2007), 476-493.

No. 06-13 JE Griffin. On the Bayesian analysis of species sampling mixture models for density estimation.

No. 06-14 MA Juarez and MFJ Steel. Model-based clustering of non-Gaussian panel data.


No. 05-1 JB Copas and S Eguchi. Local Model Uncertainty and Incomplete Data bias. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B , 67, (2005), 459-513.

No. 05-2 WS Kendall, JM Marin and CP Robert. Brownian confidence bands on Monte Carlo output. Statistics and Computing Vol 17, No. 1, (2006), 1-10.

No. 05-3 JS Smith and PE Anderson. Conditional Independence and Chain Event Graphs. Artificial Intelligence, 172, 1, (2008), 42-68.

No. 05-4 SD Jacka, Z Lazic and J Warren. Conditioning an Additive Functional of a Markov Chain to stay Non-Negative I: Survival for a Long Time. Adv. Appl. Prob. 37(4), 1015-1034 (2005).

No. 05-5 SD Jacka, Z Lazic and J Warren. Conditioning an Additive Functional of a Markov Chain to stay Non-Negative II: Hitting a High Level. Adv. Appl. Prob. 37(4), 1035-1055 (2005).

No. 05-6 JTAS Ferreira and MFJ Steel. Modelling Directional Dispersion Through Hyperspherical Log-Splines. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 67, (2005), 599-616.

No. 05-7 MB Palacios and MFJ Steel. Non-Gaussian Bayesian Geostatistical Modelling. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Theory and Methods, 101 (2006), 604-618.

No. 05-8 JTAS Ferreira and MFJ Steel. A Constructive Representation of Univariate Skewed Distributions. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Theory and Methods, 101 (2006), 823-829.

No. 05-9 JE Griffin and MFJ Steel. Order-Based Dependent Dirichlet Processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101, (2006), 179-194.

No. 05-10 JE Griffin and PJ Brown. Alternative Prior Distributions for Variable Selection with very many more Variables than Observations.

No. 05-11 MN Bennett and JE Kennedy. A Comparison of Markov-Functional and Market Models: The One-Dimensional Case.

No. 05-12 PE Anderson and JQ Smith. A Graphical Framework for representing the semantics of asymmetric models.

No. 05-13 JQ Smith and AAF Santos. Second Order Filter Distribution Approximations for Financial Time Series with Extreme Outliers. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 24, No. 3, (2006), 329-337.

No. 05-14 MA Juarez. Objective Bayes Estimation and Hypothesis Testing: the reference-intrinsic approach.

No. 05-15 MA Juarez. Normal Correlation: An Objective Bayesian Approach.

No. 05-16 EM Riccomagno and JQ Smith. The Causal Manipulation and Bayesian Estimation of Chain Event Graphs.

No. 05-17 JTAS Ferreira, MA Juarez and MFJ Steel. Directional Log-spline Distributions. Bayesian Analysis, 3, (2008), 297-316.

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