Model Uncertainty workshop

WARWICK 30 May-1 june, 2010

Organisers: Jim Griffin, Gareth Roberts, Dario Spano` and mark steel

Sunday 30 May

8:00-8:45 Registration

8:45-9:00 Welcome

9:00- 9:45 Jim Berger (Duke)  PBIC and Effective Sample Size

9:45-10:30 Christian Robert (Paris) On approximating Bayes factors

10:30-11:00 Dongchu Sun (Missouri) Bayes factor consistency for ANOVA and Linear Mixed Models

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11:00-11,30 coffee break

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11:30-12:15 David Madigan (Columbia) Dynamic Logistic Regression and Dynamic Model Averaging for Binary Classification

12:15-12:45 Geoff Nicholls (Oxford) A stochastic Dollo-model for phylogenetic inference from binary trait data: model elaboration and checking

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12:45-14:00 lunch

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14:00-14:45 Yee Whye Teh (UCL) Bayesian Rose Trees

14:45-15:30 Antonio Lijoi (Pavia) Gibbs type priors for Bayesian nonparametric inference on species variety

15:30-16:15 Chris Holmes (Oxford) Bayesian nonparametric clustering of sparse signals

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16:15-16:45 coffee break

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16:45-17:30 Carlos Carvalho (Chicago) On the Long Run Volatility of Stocks

17:30-18:00 Kostas Kalogeropoulos (LSE) Exploring ODE model uncertainty via diffusions, with application to physiological processes

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Monday 31 May

9:00- 9:45 Peter Mueller (M.D. Anderson, Texas) Modeling dependent gene expression

9:45-10:30 Matthew Stephens (Chicago) Bayesian testing of multivariate outcomes for association with genetic variant

10:30-11:00 Xavier Didelot (Warwick) Likelihood-free estimation of model evidence

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11:00-11,30 coffee break

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11:30-12:15 Robert Kohn (UNSW) Adaptive independent Metropolis-Hastings sampling in challenging models

12:15-12:45 Oliver Ratmann (Duke) Guiding Bayesian model choice using ABC, with an application to rapidly evolving infectious diseases

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12:45-14:00 lunch

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14:00-14:45 David Spiegelhalter (Cambridge) Model Uncertainty: more than a statistical issue?

14:45-15:30 Nanny Wermuth (Gotenburgh) How can we deal with insecurity regarding choice of models?

15:30-16:00 Anthony O'Hagan (Sheffield) Relating Models to Reality

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16:00-16,30 coffee break

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16:30-19:00 POSTER SESSION

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Tuesday 1 june

9:00- 9:45 Jon Forster (Southampton) Specification of prior distributions under model uncertainty

9:45-10:30 Ed George (Pennsylvania) Fully Bayes Model Selection with a Generalized g-Prior

10:30-11:00 Ioannis Ntzoufras (Athens) Population-Based Reversible-Jump MCMC for Bayesian Variable Selection and Evaluation Under Cost-Limit Restrictions

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11:00-11,30 coffee break

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11:30-12:15 Henry Wynn (LSE) Bayesian information based learning and majorization

12:15-12:45 Aki Vehtari (Aalto) Unifying decision theoretic review of Bayesian predictive model selection

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12:45-14:00 lunch

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14:00-14:45 David Dunson (Duke) High-dimensional nonparametric Bayes variable selection via nonlinear embeddings

14:45-15:30 Athanasios Kottas (UC Santa Cruz) Nonparametric mixture modeling for Poisson processes

15:30-16:00 Elja Arjas (Helsinki) A method for variable-dimensional nonparametric monotonic regression

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16:00-16:30 coffee break

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16:30-17:15 Alan Gelfand (Duke) Spatial Modeling of presence-only data over large regions

17:15-17:45 Jim Zidek (UBC) Uncertainty in ensembles of deterministic models with application to probabilistic weather forecasting

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Download the workshop booklet