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YRM week 2 (term 3) - Giovanni Burro

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Title: Empirical support to theoretical models in decision making under risk: an analysis of neuropsychological data

Abstract:
The present work is an empirical study based on the Cambridge Gambling Task. People who took part in the Experiment were either healthy individuals or people suffering from Obsessive Compulsive Disorders or Obsessive Compulsive Personality Disorders. The analysis we performed regards comparison of four theoretical models of decision making under risk: Expected Value (EV), Expected Utility (EU), Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) and Multiple Reference Point (MRP). Our study is twofold. On the one hand, we analyzed consistency of the choices of the individuals in our dataset to the four theories, separately. We linked a binary variable, which took value one if the choice of the subject was perfectly consistent with the choice suggested by the model and regressed it on some covariates. We ran a Generalized Estimating Equation analysis clustered at the individual level. On the other hand, we performed a Multinomial analysis to understand what theory our data supported the most. We found that consistency with EU and MRP for Controls was higher than for Cases. Instead, Cases were more consistent with EV and CPT than Controls. In one configuration of the game MRP best described our data while in another EV and CPT did. In some configurations there was a high probability of no adherence to any model.

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