Publications

Selected Recent Papers, Research Reports and books from 2003

1) In Bayesian Statistics and Probability

Zwiernik, P. and Smith, J.Q. (2012) "Tree-cumulants and the identifiability of Bayesian tree models", Bernoulli 2012, Vol. 18, No. 1, 290-321.

Smith, J.Q. and Rigat, F. (2012) "Isoseparation and Robustness in Finite Parameter Bayesian Inference" Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics Vol.64 , 3, 495 -519

Thwaites, P.A. and Smith, J.Q.(2011) "Separation Theorems for Chain Event Graphs" CRiSM Res.Rep. March

Zwiernik, P. and Smith, J.Q. (2011) "Implicit inequality constraints in a binary tree model" Electronic J. of Statistics, 5, 1276 - 1312

Freeman, G. and Smith, J.Q. (2011) " Dynamic Staged Trees for Discrete Multivariate Time Series: Forecasting, Model Selection and Causal Analysis", Bayesian Analysis, Vol. 06, No. 02, 279 - 306,

Freeman, G. and Smith, J.Q. (2011) " Bayesian MAP Selection of Chain Event graphs" J. Multivariate Analysis, 102, 1152 -1165

Smith, J.Q. (2011) Invited Discussion of "On Moment Priors for Bayesian Model Choice with Applications to Directed Acyclic Graphs" G.Consonni and L. La Rocca in Bayesian Statistics 9 Eds J. Bernardo et al Oxford University Press 133-135

Liverani S., Smith, J.Q. and Cussens J. (2010) "Searching a Multivariate Partition Space using Weighted MAX-SAT" in CIBB 2009, F. Masulli, L. Peterson, and R. Tagliaferri (Eds.), LNBI 6160, 240--253. Springer, Heidelberg

Rigat, F. and Smith, J.Q. (2009) "Non-parametric dynamic time series modelling with applications to detecting neural dynamics" The Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1776–1804

Liverani,S. , Anderson, P.E. Edwards, K.D. Millar, A.J. and Smith, J.Q. (2009) " Efficient Utility-based Clustering over High Dimensional Partition Spaces" J. of Bayesian Analysis, Vol. 04, No. 03, 539 - 572

Riccomagno, E. and Smith, J.Q. (2009) "The Geometry of Causal Probability Trees that are Algebraically Constrained" in "Optimal Design and Related Areas in Optimization and Statistics" Eds L. Pronzato and A.Zhigljavsky, Springer 131-152

Smith, J.Q. (2009) Comments by J.Q.Smith on Goldstein and Rougier: J. Statist. Plan Inference, 139, 1246 -47

Smith, J.Q., Anderson, P.E, and Liverani, S. (2008) "Separation Measures and the Geometry of Bayes factor selection for Classification" J Roy. Statist. Soc. B, Vol. 70, Part 5, 957 - 980

Smith, J.Q. and Daneshkhah, A. (2008) "Large Sample Robustness in Bayesian Networks" Proceedings of the 4th European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models" Eds M. Jaeger and T.D. Nielsen, Hirtshals, Denmark, September, 2008, 265 - 272

Parsons, N., Smith, J.Q., Thonnes, E.,Wilson, R.L. and Wang, L. (2008) "Rotationally invariant statistics for examining the evidence from the pores in fingerprints" Law, Probability and Risk, 7, 1-14;

Smith, J.Q. (2007) “Local Robustness of Bayesian Parametric Inference and Observed Likelihoods” CRiSM Res. Rep. 07-09

Riccomagno, E.M. and Smith, J.Q. (2007) "Algebraic Causality: Bayes Nets and Beyond" CRiSM Res. Rep. 07 -13

Smith, J.Q. and Figueroa-Quiroz, L.J. (2007) "A Causal Algebra for Dynamic Flow Networks" in "Advances in Probabilistic Graphical Models" Eds P. Lucas, J.A.Gamez, and A. Salmeron, Springer, 39 -54

Thwaites, P.E. and Smith, J.Q.(2006) "Evaluating Causal effects using Chain Event Graphs" in Proceedings of the 3rd European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models" Prague ,September, 2006 293 -301

Smith, J.Q. and Santos, A.A.F. (2006) "Second Order filter Distribution approximations for financial time series with extreme outliers", Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 24, No. 3, 329-337

Smith, J.Q. and Santos, A.A.F. (2004) "Using MCMC to estimate returns-volume stochastic volatility models: some new evidence" Proceedings of the International Conference on Stochastic Finance, Lisbon

Parsons, N., Puch, R.O., Smith, J.Q., Thonnes, E., Wang, L. and Wilson R.L. (2004) "Statistical Analysis of Fingerprint features: beyond 16 points: preliminary phase" Final Report (222 pages)

Mond, D.M.Q., Smith, J.Q. and Van Straten, D. (2003) "Stochastic factorisations, sandwiched simplices and the topology of the space of explanations" Proc. R. Soc. London. A 459, 2821-2845

Smith J.Q. and Croft, J. (2003) "Bayesian networks for discrete multivariate data: an algebraic approach to inference" J. of Multivariate Analysis, 84, 387-402

Figuerroa-Quiroz, L.J. and Smith, J.Q. (2003) "Bayesian Forecasting of Hierarchical Flows In Supply Chains" Warwick Res.Rep. 407

Croft, J. and Smith, J.Q.(2003) "Discrete mixtures in simple Bayesian Networks with hidden variables" J of Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 41/3-4 539-547.

Daneshkhah, A. and Smith, J.Q. (2003) "Multicausality, Randomised Manipulation and Parameter Independence for Collections of Bayesian Networks" in Bayesian Statistics 7, Eds Bernado, J.M., Bayarri, M.J., Berger, J.O., Dawid, A.P., Heckermand, D., Smith, A.F.M. and West, M. Oxford University Press pp 485-492

2) In Decision Analysis

Smith, J.Q. and Dodd L. (2012) "Regulating Autonomous Agents facing Conflicting Objectives: A Command and Control Example" Decision Analysis (to appear June 2012 ,Vol 9. No. 2)

Dodd, L. and Smith, J.Q. (2012) "Devolving Command Decisions in Complex Operations" J. of the Operational Res. Soc. 0160-5683/12 (appeared electronically March 2012, appears in print July 2012)

Thwaites, P.A. and Smith, J.Q.(2011) "A Graphical method for simplifying Bayesian games" CRiSM Research Report (submitted to Decision Analysis)

Dodd, L and Smith, J.Q.(2011) "Developing C2 regulatory agents for modelling and simulation of C2 agility in network enabled forces" (submitted to Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation)

Rigat, F. and Smith, J.Q. (2011) "Study of Key Interventions into Terrorism using Bayesian Networks" (SRG/09/44) Home Office Final Report (44 pages)

Smith, J.Q. and Freeman, G. (2011) "Distributional Kalman Filters for Bayesian Forecasting and Closed Form Recurrences" J. of Forecasting, Vol 30, No. 1 210 -224

Cowell, R.G., Thwaites, P. and Smith, J.Q. (2010) "Decision making with decision event graphs" CRISM Research Report

Smith, J.Q. (2010) " Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice" Cambridge University Press

Smith, J.Q. (2010) "An Introduction to Bayes Nets for Evaluating Home Office Policies" Home Office Tutorial Paper Feb'10

Smith, J.Q. and Thwaites, P. (2008) “Decision Modelling” in Encyclopaedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment, " ,2, Eds. Melnick, E.L. and Everitt, B.S., 459-462

Smith, J.Q. and Thwaites, P. (2008) “Decision Trees” Encyclopaedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment, 2, Eds. Melnick, E.L. and Everitt, B.S., 462 - 70

Smith, J.Q. and Thwaites, P. (2008) “Influence Diagrams” Encyclopaedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment, 2, Eds. Melnick, E.L. and Everitt, B.S., 897 - 910

Dodd L., Moffat, J. and Smith, J.Q. (2006) "Discontinuity in decision making when objectives conflict: a military command decision case study", Journal of the Operational Research Society, 57, 643-654

Dodd, L., Moffat, J., Smith J.Q. and Mathieson, G. (2003) "From Simple Prescriptive to Complex Descriptive Models: an example from a recent Command Decision Experiment" Proceedings of the 8th Int. Command and Control Research & Technology Symposium Washington June 2003

3) In Artificial Intelligence

Barclay, L.M. , Hutton, J.L. and Smith, J.Q.(2012) "Embellishing a Bayesian Network using a Chain Event Graph" CRiSM Res. Rep. (submitted to International J. of Approximate Reasoning)

Xiang, Y., Smith, J.Q. and Kroes, K. (2011) "Multiagent Bayesian Forecasting of Structural Time invariant Dynamic Systems with Graphical Models" International J. of Approximate Reasoning 52, no. 7, 960--977; MR2835054

Thwaites, P. Smith, J.Q. and Riccomagno, E. (2010) "Causal Analysis with Chain Event Graphs" Artificial Intelligence, 174, 889–909

Smith, J.Q. and Daneshkhah, A. (2010) "On the Robustness of Bayesian Networks to Learning from Non-conjugate Sampling" International J. of Approximate Reasoning, 51, 558 -572

Xiang, Y. Smith, J.Q. and Kroes, J. (2009) "Mulitagent Bayesian Forecasting of Time Series with Graphical Models" Proceeding of FLAIRS 09 - Florida, May 19 - 21 '09

Thwaites, P. Freeman, G. and Smith, J.Q. (2009) "Chain Event Graph MAP Selection" Proceedings of KEOD 09 Madeira 392- 5

Thwaites, P., Smith, J.Q. and Cowell, R. (2008)" Propagation using Chain Event Graphs" Proceedings of the 24th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Editors D. McAllester and P. Myllymaki, Helsinki, July 2008, 546 -553

Smith, J.Q. and Anderson P.E. (2008) "Conditional independence and Chain Event Graphs" Artificial Intelligence, 172, 1, 42 - 68

Thwaites, P.E. and Smith, J.Q.(2006) "Non-symmetric Models, Chain Graphs and Propagation" in Proceedings of 11th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge - based Systems Paris July 2006, 2339 - 2347

Figueroa-Quiroz, L.J. and Smith, J.Q. (2004) "Causal Bayesian networks of time series whose processes obey balance" Proceedings of the 3rd European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models, Leiden, Peter Lucas (Ed) 89-96

Riccomagno, E.M. and Smith, J.Q. (2004) "Identifying a cause in models which are not simple Bayesian networks" Proceedings of 10th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge - based Systems, Perugia July 04, 1315-22

Madrigal, A.M. and Smith, J.Q. (2004) "Causal Identification in Design Networks" Advances in Artificial Intelligence, Springer 517-26

Daneshkhah, A. & Smith, J.Q.(2004) "Multicausal prior families, Randomisation and Essential Graphs" Advances in Bayesian Networks, Physica-Verlag, 1-17

Puch, R.O., Smith, J.Q. and Bielza, C. (2004) "Inferentially efficient propagation in non-decomposable Bayesian networks with hierarchical junction trees" Advances in Bayesian Networks, Physica-Verlag, 57-74

4) In Biology and the Environment

Monnier, A. , Liverani,S., Bouvet, R. Jesson, B. , Smith, J.Q., Mosser, J., Corellou, F. and Bouget. F-Y. (2010) "Orchestrated transcription of biological processes in the marine picoeukaryote Ostreococcus exposed to light/dark cycles" BMC Genomics 2010, 11:192

Edwards, K.D., Anderson, P.E., Hall, A., Salattini, N.S., Lock, J.C.W., Lynn, J.R., Smith, J.Q. and Millar, A.J. (2006) "Flowering locus C mediates natural variation in high temperature response of the Circadian Clock, Plant Cell Vol. 8, 639 -650

Crane, M. Norton, A. Leaman,J. Chalak A., Bailey, A., Yoxon, M., Smith, J.Q. and Fenlon, J. (2006) “Acceptability of pesticide impacts on the environment: what do UK stakeholders and public value” Pest Management Science, 62(1), 5-19

Drews, M., Larsen, B., Madsen, H. and Smith J.Q. (2004) "Kalman Filtration of Radiation Monitoring Data from Atmospheric Dispersion of Radioactive Materials" Radiation Protection Dosometry, Vol III, 3, 257-269