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Publications

Selected Recent Papers, Research Reports and books from 2008
Working Papers currently under submission
To Statistics and Probability

Zwiernick, P. & Smith J.Q. (2017) " The Dependence of Routine Bayesian Model Selection Methods on Irrelevant Alternatives" (under revision) CRiSM Res Rep.[arXiv],

Costa, L, Smith, J.Q. & Nicholls, T, (2017) “On the selection of Multiregression Dynamic Models of fMRI networked time series” (under revision)

Leonelli, M., Riccomagno, E & Smith, J.Q.(2017) "The algebra of integrated partial belief systems" CRiSM Res Rep (under revision)

Smith J.Q., Barons, M.J. & Leonelli, M.(2015) "Bayesian Inference in Distributed Expert Systems" CRiSM report, ArXiv (under review)

Thwaites P.A.& Smith J.Q. (2017) "A Separation Theorem for Chain Event Graphs" (submitted)

Shiers , N. Aston. J.A.D. Smith, J.Q.& Coleman, J.S (2015) "Phonetic Functional Data Analysis and Tree Constraints with Romance Languages " CRiSM Report (under revision)

Thwaites, P.A. &Smith, J.Q.(2011) "Separation Theorems for Chain Event Graphs" CRiSM Res.Rep. March

2018 Publications
In Statistics and Probability

Collazo, R.A., Gorgen, C and Smith, J.Q.(2018) "Chain Event Graphs" Chapman Hall (to appear)

In Decision Analysis

Barons M, Wright S and Smith JQ, (2018) "Eliciting Probabilistic Judgments for Integrating Decision Support Systems", in: Dias LC, Morton A, Quigley J (eds), Elicitation: The science and art of structuring judgement. Springer, New York, Chapter 17 (to appear)

2017 Publications
In Statistics and Probability

Gorgen, C. & Smith, J.Q. (2017) "Equivalence classes of Staged Trees" Bernoulli (to appear)

Shiers, N., Aston J.A.D., Smith, J.Q. &Coleman, J.S. (2017) "Gaussian Tree Constraints applied to Acoustic Linguistic Functional Data" Journal of Multivariate Analysis vol 154 199 -215

Collazo, R.A. and Smith, J.Q.(2017) "The Dynamic Chain Event Graph" Proceedings of ISI Marrakech, 2017(to appear)

In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

French,S. Haywood, S., Hort, M. & Smith J.Q.(2017) "Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management" (to appear)

Thwaites P.A. & Smith J.Q.(2017) "A Graphical method for simplifying Bayesian Games" Reliability Enginereering and System Safety (online:12-MAY-2017 DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.05.012

Gilbert, M., French,S & Smith, J.Q.(2017) "Influence of Group Members in Multi-Attribute Utilities" International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making (to appear)

Leonelli, M. & Smith, J.Q.(2017) "Directed Expected Utility Networks" Decision Analysis ISSN 1545-8490 (available online 10 May ISSN 1545-8504, pp 1-18)

In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Leonelli, M. Roccomagno E., & Smith, J.Q. (2017) "A symbolic algebra for the computation of expected utilities in multiplicative influence diagrams" Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence (to appear)

Leonelli, M, Gorgen, C. & Smith, J.Q. (2017) "Sensitivity analysis in multilinear probabilistic models" Information Sciences 411 84 - 97

Thwaites, P.A. & Smith, J.Q. (2017) "A new method for tackling asymmetric decision problems" International J. of Approximate Reasoning (to appear)

2016 Publications
In Statistics and Probability

Shiers , N. ,Zwiernik, P., Aston. J.A.D. & Smith, J.Q. (2016) "The Correlation Space of Latent Tree Models" [arXiv] Biometrika 103, (3) 531 -545

Collazo, R.A. & Smith, J.Q.(2016) "A new family of Non-local Priors for Chain Event Graph model selection" Bayesian Analysis 11, no 4, 1165 - 1201

Underhill, N.T. & Smith J.Q. (2016) "Context - dependent score based Bayesian information criteria" Bayesian Analysis 2016 Vol 11 no 4, pp 1005-1033

Oates, CJ. Smith, JQ. Mukherjee, S. & Cussens. J (2016) "Exact Estimation of Multiple Directed Acyclic Graphs". Statistics and Computing 26,4, 797 -811

In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

French,S. & Smith, J.Q.(2016) "Decision Analytic Framework for a Decision Support System for Nuclear Emergency Management " in UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics, Eds Aston, P.J., Mullholland, A.J. &Taut, K.M.M. Springer, 163 -171

French, S., N. Argyris, H. Layton, J. Q. Smith, S. M. Haywood & M. Hort (2016). "Presenting Uncertain Information in Radiological Emergencies". https://admlc.wordpress.com/publications/. UK Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling Liaison Committee.

In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Liverani, S. & J. Q. Smith. (2016) "Bayesian selection of graphical regulatory models". International J. of Approximate Reasoning, 77, 87–104. URL: doi:10.1016/j.ijar.2016.05.007

Oates CJ, Smith JQ, & Mukherjee S. (2016) Estimation of Causal Structure Using Conditional DAG Models. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 17(54):1−23. [arXiv] [Supplement]

Gorgen, C. & Smith, J.Q.(2016) "A Differential approach to Causality in Staged Trees" Proceedings of the Eighth European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models Switzaland September 2016.

2015 Publications
In Statistics and Probability

Barclay, L.M., R. Collazo, Smith, J.Q. Thwaites , P. & Nicholson , A. (2015) "Dynamic Chain Event Graphs" Electronic J of Statistics 2015, Vol. 9, No. 2, 2130-2169.

Costa L, Smith,J.Q. Nicholls, T. & Cussens J. (2015) "Searching Multiregression Dynamic Models of Resting-State fMRI Networks Using Integer Programming" Bayesian Analysis Vol. 10, No. 2, 441-478

Smith, J.Q., Barons, M.j. & Leonelli, M. (2015) "Decision focused inference on Networked Probabilistic Systems: with applications to food security" Proceeedings of the Joint Statistical Meeting, Seattle, August 2015

Gorgen,C., Leonelli. M & Smith J.Q.(2015) "A Differential Approach for Staged Trees" 13th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty July 2015 France

In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Leonelli. M., & Smith J.Q. (2015) "Bayesian Decision Support for Complex Systems with Many Distributed Experts " Annals of Operations Research DOI 10.1007/s10479-015-1957-7

2014 Publications
In Statistics and Probability

Cowell, R.G. & Smith , J.Q. (2014) "Causal discovery through MAP selection of stratified chain event graphs" Electronic J of Statistics Vol.8, 965 - 997

Barclay, L.M., Hutton , J.L. & Smith, J.Q. (2014) "Chain Event Graphs for Informed Missingness" Bayesian Analysis, 9,1, 53-76

2013 Publications
In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Dodd, L. & Smith, J.Q. (2013) "Devolving Command Decisions in Complex Operations" J. of the Operational Res. Soc. , 64, 17-33

Leonelli. M., & Smith J.Q. (2013) "Using Graphical Models and Multi-attribute Utility Theory for Probabilistic Uncertainty Handling in Large Systems" IEEE 29th International Conference on Data Engineering Workshops (ICDEW), .181-192 ISBN: 978-1-4673-5303-82013

Leonelli. M. & Smith J.Q. (2013) "Dynamic Uncertainty Handling for Coherent Decision Making in Nuclear Emergency Response" CRiSM Res Rep and Proceedings of the 2013 Meeting of the American Nuclear Society Washington

In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Barclay, L.M. , Hutton, J.L. & Smith, J.Q.(2013) "Refining a Bayesian Network using a Chain Event Graph" International J. of Approximate Reasoning 54, 1300-1309.

2012 Publications
In Statistics and Probability

Zwiernik, P. &Smith, J.Q. (2012) "Tree-cumulants and the identifiability of Bayesian tree models", Bernoulli 2012, Vol. 18, No. 1, 290-321.

Smith, J.Q. & Rigat, F. (2012) "Isoseparation and Robustness in Finite Parameter Bayesian Inference" Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics Vol.64 , 3, 495 -519

In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Smith, J.Q. & Dodd L. (2012) "Regulating Autonomous Agents facing Conflicting Objectives: A Command and Control Example" Decision Analysis ,Vol 9. No. 2, 165 -171

In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Shiers, N. & Smith, J.Q.(2012) "Graphical inequality diagnostics for phylogenetic trees" Proceedings of 6th European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models, Granada Spain, 19 -21 Sept 2012 pp. 291-298

2011 Publications
In Statistics and Probability

Zwiernik, P. & Smith, J.Q. (2011) "Implicit inequality constraints in a binary tree model" Electronic J. of Statistics, 5, 1276 - 1312

Freeman, G. & Smith, J.Q. (2011) " Dynamic Staged Trees for Discrete Multivariate Time Series: Forecasting, Model Selection and Causal Analysis", Bayesian Analysis, Vol. 06, No. 02, 279 - 306,

Freeman, G. & Smith, J.Q. (2011) " Bayesian MAP Selection of Chain Event graphs" J. Multivariate Analysis, 102, 1152 -1165

In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Smith, J.Q. & Freeman, G. (2011) "Distributional Kalman Filters for Bayesian Forecasting and Closed Form Recurrences" J. of Forecasting, Vol 30, No. 1 210 -224

Rigat, F. & Smith, J.Q. (2011) "Study of Key Interventions into Terrorism using Bayesian Networks" (SRG/09/44) Home Office Final Report (44 pages)

In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Xiang, Y., Smith, J.Q. & Kroes, K. (2011) "Multiagent Bayesian Forecasting of Structural Time invariant Dynamic Systems with Graphical Models" International J. of Approximate Reasoning 52, no. 7, 960--977; MR2835054

2010 Publications
In Statistics and Probability

Liverani S., Smith, J.Q. & Cussens J. (2010) "Searching a Multivariate Partition Space using Weighted MAX-SAT" in CIBB 2009, F. Masulli, L. Peterson, and R. Tagliaferri (Eds.), LNBI 6160, 240--253. Springer, Heidelberg

Monnier, A. , Liverani,S., Bouvet, R. Jesson, B. , Smith, J.Q., Mosser, J., Corellou, F. and Bouget. F-Y. (2010) "Orchestrated transcription of biological processes in the marine picoeukaryote Ostreococcus exposed to light/dark cycles" BMC Genomics 2010, 11:192

In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Smith, J.Q. (2010) " Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice" Cambridge University Press

Smith, J.Q. (2010) "An Introduction to Bayes Nets for Evaluating Home Office Policies" Home Office Tutorial Paper Feb'10

In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Thwaites, P. Smith, J.Q. & Riccomagno, E. (2010) "Causal Analysis with Chain Event Graphs" Artificial Intelligence, 174, 889–909

Smith, J.Q. & Daneshkhah, A. (2010) "On the Robustness of Bayesian Networks to Learning from Non-conjugate Sampling" International J. of Approximate Reasoning, 51, 558 -572

2009 Publications
In Statistics and Probability

Rigat, F. & Smith, J.Q. (2009) "Non-parametric dynamic time series modelling with applications to detecting neural dynamics" The Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1776–1804

Liverani,S. , Anderson, P.E. Edwards, K.D. Millar, A.J. &Smith, J.Q. (2009) " Efficient Utility-based Clustering over High Dimensional Partition Spaces" J. of Bayesian Analysis, Vol. 04, No. 03, 539 - 572

Riccomagno, E. & Smith, J.Q. (2009) "The Geometry of Causal Probability Trees that are Algebraically Constrained" in "Optimal Design and Related Areas in Optimization and Statistics" Eds L. Pronzato and A.Zhigljavsky, Springer 131-152

In Decision Analysis & Operations Research
In Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning

Xiang, Y. Smith, J.Q. & Kroes, J. (2009) "Mulitagent Bayesian Forecasting of Time Series with Graphical Models" Proceeding of FLAIRS 09 - Florida, May 19 - 21 '09

Thwaites, P. Freeman, G. & Smith, J.Q. (2009) "Chain Event Graph MAP Selection" Proceedings of KEOD 09 Madeira 392- 5

2008 Publications
In Statistics and Probability

Smith, J.Q., Anderson, P.E, & Liverani, S. (2008) "Separation Measures and the Geometry of Bayes factor selection for Classification" J Roy. Statist. Soc. B, Vol. 70, Part 5, 957 - 980

Parsons, N., Smith, J.Q., Thonnes, E.,Wilson, R.L. & Wang, L. (2008) "Rotationally invariant statistics for examining the evidence from the pores in fingerprints" Law, Probability and Risk, 7, 1-14;

Smith, J.Q. & Daneshkhah, A. (2008) "Large Sample Robustness in Bayesian Networks" Proceedings of the 4th European Workshop on Probabilistic Graphical Models" Eds M. Jaeger and T.D. Nielsen, Hirtshals, Denmark, September, 2008, 265 - 272

In Decision Analysis & Operations Research

Smith, J.Q. and Thwaites, P. (2008) “Decision Modelling” in Encyclopaedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment, " ,2, Eds. Melnick, E.L. and Everitt, B.S., 459-462

Smith, J.Q. & Thwaites, P. (2008) “Decision Trees” Encyclopaedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment, 2, Eds. Melnick, E.L. and Everitt, B.S., 462 - 70

Smith, J.Q. & Thwaites, P. (2008) “Influence Diagrams” Encyclopaedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment, 2, Eds. Melnick, E.L. and Everitt, B.S., 897 - 910

In Artificial Intelligence & Machine

Thwaites, P., Smith, J.Q. & Cowell, R. (2008)" Propagation using Chain Event Graphs" Proceedings of the 24th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Editors D. McAllester and P. Myllymaki, Helsinki, July 2008, 546 -553

Smith, J.Q. & Anderson P.E. (2008) "Conditional independence and Chain Event Graphs" Artificial Intelligence, 172, 1, 42 - 68