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Jeremy Smith

Contact details

Telephone: +44 (0)24 765 23336

Fax: +44 (0)24 765 23032

Email: Jeremy dot Smith at warwick dot ac dot uk

Room: S2.124

Advice and feedback hours:

Monday 09:30-10:30 (Term time = online or in-person. Outside term time=online ONLY)

Tuesday 09:00-10:00 (Term time = online or in-person. Outside term time= online ONLY)

Please note that you must book an appointment at these Advice and Feedback hours. You can book an appointment through Bookings. Please note if this is an online meeting it will be on Teams.

Jeremy Smith is a Professor of Economics, Director of Undergraduate Studies.

Jeremy was educated at University of Manchester before moving onto the Australian National University. Jeremy has published papers in a number of top economics journals including in the Journal of Econometrics, The Economic Journal , Journal of Applied Econometrics.


Research Interests

  • Time series econometrics
  • the theory of forecasting and forecast evaluation criteria
  • non-linear models
  • Higher education outcomes and performance.

Teaching

EC124 Statistical Techniques B

EC125 Computing and Data Analysis

EC226 Econometrics 1


Other information

Publications

Otero, J. and Smith, J. (2017), “Response surface models for OLS and GLS detrending-based unit-root tests in nonlinear ESTAR models”, Stata Journal, 17, 704-722.

Naylor, R. A. Smith, J. and Shqiponja T (2016), “Graduate returns, degree class premia and higher education expansion in the UK”, Oxford Economic Papers, 68, 525-545.

Boero, G., Smith, J. and Wallis, K. F. (2015), “The measurement and characteristics of professional forecasters’ uncertainty”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30, 1029-1046..

Otero, J. and Smith, J. (2013), “Response surface estimates of the cross-sectionally augmented IPS tests for panel unit roots”, Computational Economics, 41, 1-9.

Arulampalam, W., Naylor, R. A and Smith, J. (2012), “Am I Missing Something? The effects of absence from class on student performance”, Economics of Education Review, 31, 363-375.

Otero, J, and Smith, J. (2012), “Response surface models for the Leybourne unit root tests and lag order dependence”, Computational Statistics, forthcoming.

Boero, G., Smith, J. and Wallis, K. F. (2011), “Scoring rules and survey density forecasts”, International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 379-393.

Smith, J. and Wallis, K. F. (2009), “A simple explanation of the forecast combination puzzle”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71, 331-355.

Giulietti, M., Otero, J, Smith, J. and (2009), “Testing stationarity in heterogeneous panel data in the presence of cross section dependence”, Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 79, 195-203.

Boero, G., Smith, J. and Wallis, K. F. (2008), “Evaluating a three-dimensional panel of point forecasts: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters”, International Journal of Forecasting, 24, 354-367.

Giulietti, M., Otero, J, Smith, J. and (2008), “Testing for unit roots in three-dimensional heterogeneous panel in the presence of cross-sectional dependence”, Economics Letters, 101, 188-192.

Boero, G., Smith, J. and Wallis, K. F. (2008), “Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters”, Economic Journal, 118, 1107-1127.

Otero, J, Smith, J. and Giulietti, M. (2007), “Testing for seasonal unit roots in heterogeneous panels in the presence of cross section dependence”, Economics Letters, 97, 179-184.

Arulampalam, W., Naylor, R. A. and Smith, J. (2005), “Effects of in-class variation and student rank on the probability of withdrawal: cross-section and time-series analysis for UK university students”, Economics of Education Review, 24, 251-262.

Otero, J, Smith, J. and Giulietti, M. (2005), “Testing for seasonal unit roots in heterogeneous panels”, Economics Letters, 86, 229-235.

Boero, G., Smith, J. and Wallis, K. F. (2004), “The sensitivity of chi-squared goodness-of-fit tests to the partitioning of data” Econometric Reviews, 23, 341-370.

Boero, G., Smith, J. and Wallis, K. F. (2004), “Decompositions of Pearson’s chi-squared test”, Journal of Econometrics, 123, 189-193.

Smith, J. and Naylor, R. A. (2005), “Schooling effects on subsequent university performance: evidence for the UK university population”, Economics of Education Review, 24, 549-562.

Bratti, M., McKnight, A., Naylor, R. A. and Smith, J. (2004), "Higher Education Outcomes, Graduate Employment and University Performance Indicators", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 167, 475-496.

Arulampalam, W., Naylor, R. A. and Smith, J. (2004), "A Hazard Model of the Probability of Medical School Dropout in the United Kingdom", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 167, 157-178.

Clements, M. P., Franses, P. H., Smith, J. and van Dijk, D. (2003), “On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting”, Journal of Forecasting, 22, 359-375.

Souza, L. R. and Smith, J. (2002), "Bias in the memory parameter for different sampling rates", International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 299-313.

Clements, M. P. and Smith, J. (2001), "Nonlinearities in exchange rates", Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 133-148.

Smith, J. and Naylor, R. A. (2001), "Determinants of degree performance in UK universities: a statistical analysis of the 1993 student cohort", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 63, 29-60.

Smith, J. and Naylor, R. A. (2001), "Dropping out of university: A statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 164, 389-405.

Smith, J., McKnight, A. and Naylor, R. A. (2000), "Graduate employability: Policy and performance in Higher Education in the UK", Economic Journal, 110, F382-F411.

Clements, M. P. and Smith, J. (2000), "Evaluating Density Forecasts of Linear and Non-Linear Models: Applications to output growth and unemployment", Journal of Forecasting, 19, 255-276.

WRAP Journal Publications

  • Boero G., Nathwani T., Naylor R. & Smith J.(2024) The college wage premium in the UK : decline and fall? . Oxford Economic Papers.
  • Otero J. & Smith J.(2017) Response surface models for OLS and GLS detrending-based unit-root tests in nonlinear ESTAR models. The Stata Journal, 17(3): 704-722. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1536867X1701700310
  • Naylor R., Smith J. & Telhaj S.(2016) Graduate returns, degree class premia and higher education expansion in the UK. Oxford Economic Papers, 68(2): 525-545. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpv070
  • Boero G., Smith J. & Wallis K. F.(2015) The measurement and characteristics of professional forecasters' uncertainty. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30(7): 1029-1046. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.2400
  • Otero J. & Smith J.(2013) Response surface estimates of the cross-sectionally augmented IPS tests for panel unit roots. Computational Economics, 41(1): 1-9. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10614-011-9309-4
  • Otero J. & Smith J.(2012) Response surface models for the Leybourne unit root tests and lag order dependence. Computational Statistics, 27(3): 473-486. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00180-011-0268-y
  • Arulampalam W., Naylor R. & Smith J.(2012) Am I missing something? The effects of absence from class on student performance. Economics of Educations Review, 31(4): 363-375. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2011.12.002
  • Boero G., Smith J. & Wallis K. F.(2011) Scoring rules and survey density forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(2): 379-393. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.04.003
  • Smith J. & Wallis K. F.(2009) A simple explanation of the forecast combination puzzle. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71(3): 331-355. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2008.00541.x
  • Giulietti M., Otero J. & Smith J.(2009) Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 79(2): 195-203. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00949650701719136
  • Giulietti M., Otero J. & Smith J.(2008) Testing for unit roots in three-dimensional heterogeneous panels in the presence of cross-sectional dependence. Economics Letters, 101(3): 188-192. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2008.08.001
  • Boero G., Smith J. & Wallis K. F.(2008) Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction : The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. Economic Journal, 118(530): 1107-1127. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02162.x
  • Boero G., Smith J. & Wallis K. F.(2008) Evaluating a three-dimensional panel of point forecasts : the Bank of England survey of external forecasters. International Journal of Forecasting, 24(3): 354-367. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.04.003
  • Boero G., Smith J. & Wallis K. F.(2008) Here is the news : forecast revisions in the Bank of England survey of external forecasters. National Institute Economic Review, 203(1): 68-77. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0027950108089679
  • Otero J., Smith J. & Giulietti M.(2007) Testing for seasonal unit roots in heterogeneous panels in the presence of cross section dependence. Economics Letters, 97(2): 179-184. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2007.03.002
  • Arulampalam W., Naylor R. & Smith J.(2007) Dropping out of medical school in the UK : explaining changes over 10 years. Medical Education, 41(4): 385-394. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2929.2007.02710.x
  • Otero J. & Smith J.(2007) The KPSS Test with outliers. Computational Economics, 26(3-4): 59-67. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10614-005-9008-0
  • Souza L. R., Smith J. & Souza R. C.(2006) Convex combinations of long memory estimates from different sampling rates. Computational Statistics, 21(3-4): 399-413. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00180-006-0002-3
  • Arulampalam W., Naylor R. & Smith J.(2005) Effects of in-class variation and student rank on the probability of withdrawal : cross-section and time-series analysis for UK university students. Economics of Education Review, 24(3): 251-262. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2004.05.007
  • Otero J., Smith J. & Giulietti M.(2005) Testing for seasonal unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Economics Letters, 86(2): 229-235. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2004.06.018
  • Boero G., Smith J. & Wallis K. F.(2005) The sensitivity of Chi-Squared Goodness-of-Fit Tests to the partitioning of data. Econometric Reviews, 3(4): 341-370. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1081/ETC-200040782
  • Boero G., Smith J. & Wallis K. F.(2004) Decompositions of Pearson's chi-squared test. Journal of Econometrics, 123(1): 189-193. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2003.10.032
  • Naylor R. & Smith J.(2004) Degree performance of economics students in UK universities : absolute and relative performance in prior qualifications. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 51(2): 250-265. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0036-9292.2004.00305.x
  • Souza L. R. & Smith J.(2004) Effects of temporal aggregation on estimates and forecasts of fractionally integrated processes : a Monte Carlo study. International Journal of Forecasting, 20(3): 487-502. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(03)00066-9
  • Arulampalam W., Naylor R. & Smith J.(2004) Factors affecting the probability of first year medical student dropout in the UK : a logistic analysis for the intake cohorts of 1980-92. Medical Education, 38(5): 492-503. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2929.2004.01815.x
  • Bratti M., McKnight A., Naylor R. & Smith J.(2004) Higher education outcomes, graduate employment and university performance indicators. Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics In Society, 167(Part 3): 475-496.
  • Arulampalam W., Naylor R. & Smith J.(2004) A hazard model of the probability of medical school drop-out in the UK. Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics In Society, 167(Part 1): 157-178.
  • Clements M. P., Hans Franses P., Smith J. & van Dijk D.(2003) On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting. Journal of Forecasting, 22(5): 359-375. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.863
  • Noceti P., Smith J. & Hodges S.(2003) An evaluation of tests of distributional forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 22(6-7): 447-455. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.876
  • Souza L. R. & Smith J.(2002) Bias in the memory parameter for different sampling rates. International Journal of Forecasting, 18(2): 299-313. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00160-1
  • Clements M. P. & Smith J.(2002) Evaluating multivariate forecast densities : a comparison of two approaches. International Journal of Forecasting, 18(3): 397-407. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00126-1
  • Naylor R., Smith J. & McKnight A.(2002) Why is there a graduate earnings premium for students from Independent Schools?. Bulletin of Economic Research, 54(4): 315-339. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-8586.00155
  • Smith J. & Naylor R.(2001) Determinants of degree performance in UK universities : a statistical analysis of the 1993 student cohort. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 63(1): 29-60. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.00208
  • Clements M. P. & Smith J.(2001) Dropping out of university : a statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students. Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics In Society, 164(Part 2): 389-405. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-985X.00209
  • Clements M. P. & Smith J.(2001) Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(1): 133-148. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(00)00039-5
  • Clements M. P. & Smith J.(2000) Evaluating the forecast densities of linear and non-linear models : Applications to output growth and unemployment. Journal of Forecasting, 19(4): 255-276. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/1099-131X(200007)19:4<255::AID-FOR773>3.0.CO;2-G
  • Smith J., McKnight A. & Naylor R.(2000) Graduate employability : policy and performance in higher education in the UK. Economic Journal, 110(464): F382-F411. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00546
  • Smith J. & Otero J.(2000) Testing for cointegration : power versus frequency of observation - further Monte Carlo results. Economics Letters, 67(1): 5-9. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(99)00245-1
  • Clements M. P. & Smith J.(1999) A Monte Carlo study of the forecasting performance of empirical SETAR models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 14(2): 123-141. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199903/04)14:2<123::AID-JAE493>3.0.CO;2-K
  • McLean I. & Smith J.(1997) The 1381 Peasants' Revolt : lessons for 1990's?. The Journal of European Economic History , 26(1): 137-143. Available at: http://www.istitutodatini.it/biblio/riviste/g-k/journal3.htm
  • Smith J., Taylor N. & Yadav S.(1997) Comparing the bias and misspecification in ARFIMA models. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 18(5): 507-527. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9892.00065
  • Smith J. & Otero J.(1997) Structural breaks and seasonal integration. Economics Letters, 56(1): 13-19. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(97)00156-0
  • Clements M. P. & Smith J.(1997) The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models. International Journal of Forecasting, 13(4): 463-475. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00017-4
  • Smith J. & Yadav S.(1996) A comparison of alternative covariance matrices for models with over-lapping observations. Journal of International Money and Finance, 15(5): 813-823. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0261-5606(96)00027-7
  • Smith J. & Smith P. N.(1995) GAUSS 3.2 and COINT 2.0. Journal of Economic Surveys, 9(1): 89-101. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.1995.tb00111.x
  • Gruen D. W. R. & Smith J.(1994) Excess returns in a small open economy. Economic Record, 70(211): 381-396. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1994.tb01857.x
  • Smith J. & Yadav S.(1994) Forecasting costs incurred from unit differencing fractionally integrated processes. International Journal of Forecasting, 10(4): 507-514. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/
  • Smith J. & Murphy C. W.(1994) Macroeconomic fluctuations in the Australian economy. Economic Record, 70(209): 133-148. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1994.tb01833.x
  • Smith J. & McAleer M.(1994) Newey–West covariance matrix estimates for models with generated regressors. Applied Economics, 26(6): 635-640. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036849400000034
  • Sedgley N. & Smith J.(1994) An analysis of UK imports using multivariate cointegration. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 56(2): 135-150. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1994.mp56002002.x
  • McAleer M. & Smith J.(1994) A note on the unbiasedness test of rationality using survey data. Journal of Macroeconomics, 16(2): 369-374. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0164-0704(94)90078-7
  • Smith J. & Hagan J.(1993) Multivariate cointegration and error correction models : an application to manufacturing activity in Australia. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 40(2): 184-198. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.1993.tb00649.x
  • Smith J. & McAleer M.(1993) On the robustness of Barro's new classical unemployment model. Applied Economics, 25(3): 349-360. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036849300000042
  • McAleer M. & Smith J.(1992) Bootstrap estimates of a new classical model of unemployment. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 33(5-6): 545-550. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0378-4754(92)90150-F
  • Osborn D. R. & Smith J.(1989) The performance of periodic autoregressive models in forecasting seasonal U.K. consumption. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , 7(1): 117-127. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1989.10509719
  • Birchenhall C. R., Bladen-Hovell R. C., Chui A. P. L., Osborn D. R. & Smith J.(1989) A seasonal model of consumption. The Economic Journal, 99(397): 837-843. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2233774
  • Osborn D. R., Chui A. P. L., Smith J. & Birchenhall C. R.(1988) Seasonality and the order of integration for consumption. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 50(4): 361-377. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1988.mp50004002.x