Vincenzo Bove, an Assistant Professor and a British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow here in PAIS, has recently co-authored a paper, titled ‘“Oil above Water", Economic Interdependence and Third-Party Intervention,’ for the Journal of Conflict Resolution.

Alongside researchers from the Universities Portsmouth and Essex, they have for the first time provided strong evidence for what conspiracy theorists have long thought – oil is often the reason for interfering in another country’s war.

Throughout recent history, countries which need oil have found reasons to interfere in countries with a good supply of it and, the researchers argue, this could help explain the US interest in ISIS in northern Iraq.

The researchers have modelled the decision-making process of third-party countries in interfering in civil wars and examined their economic motives.

They found that the decision to interfere was dominated by the interveners’ need for oil over and above historical, geographical or ethnic ties.

The full paper is available, '"Oil above Water", Economic Interdependence and Third-Party Intervention', Journal of Conflict Resolution.

Please see the University of Warwick press release for the paper

The paper has received considerable press coverage, the articles can be viewed below:

The Independent

Business Insider

The Courier

Express and Star

The Daily Star

The Examiner

Science Daily

World Science

Newsweek