COALITION DYNAMICS

Written by Professor Wyn Grant, Politics and International Studies

The Comprehensive Spending Review due in October is the next major challenge threatening the Lib-Con coalition but the partnership between Clegg and Cameron's relationship has proven remarkably stable so far. Prof Wyn Grant offers an analysis of the Coalition Government as it stands - he predicts that the real test is still to come, when the coalition will be faced with getting the legislation on a referendum on the Alternative Vote through Parliament.

With the re-convening of Parliament, the Coalition Government enters a more hazardous phase of its existence, centring on the Comprehensive Spending Review due in October. So far the Coalition Government has worked remarkably well, indeed there have been far fewer tensions than in many single party governments. There has been virtually no ‘leaking’ of information by one minister against another or from Downing Street. There have been tensions between the Treasury and the spending departments, for example, with Iain Duncan Smith at Work and Pensions, but the Treasury’s responsibility for saying ‘no’ would produce these in any government.

Why have relationships worked remarkably smoothly? There was considerable preparation for the possibility of a ‘hung’ Parliament by the civil service led by the Cabinet Secretary, Warwick Economics graduate Gus O’Donnell. Various scenarios were ‘gamed’ in role playing exercises so that civil servants were prepared for any combination of events and the challenges that might arise. The think tank, the Institute of Government, also did some very useful preparatory work.

One should not also underestimate the importance of the personal chemistry between David Cameron and Nick Clegg.

One should not also underestimate the importance of the personal chemistry between David Cameron and Nick Clegg. They come from relatively similar backgrounds, are around the same age and have young families. Fortuitously, they were able to have a long conversation at the opening of the Supreme Court last autumn and discovered that their motivations for entering politics were remarkably similar. Nick Clegg is on the market oriented wing of his party and his views are not that different from the modernising ‘One Nation’ Conservatism of David Cameron. For example, both of them think that British government is too centralised and there needs to be more scope for local initiative.

However, not everyone is a winner in this process. The need to include Liberal Democrats in the government has meant that there have been fewer slots for Conservatives and a number of them have been disappointed in their hopes of ministerial office. Right-wing Conservatives think that there have been too many concessions to the Liberals and Conservative policies have been diluted far too much. However, without concessions on such points as inheritance tax, the coalition would have not been formed at all and the electorate would have been faced with the unwelcome prospect of a second election.

It is the Liberal Democrats, as the junior partners in the Coalition Government, who stand to lose the most. They have already offended some left-leaning voters who supported them in areas where Labour was not likely to do very well. Their distinct identity as a party has suffered with voters less sure in opinion polls about what they stand for. A logical conclusion could be for the Conservatives to stand down in their favour at some seats in the next election. However, this would threaten their distinct identity even more and would be reminiscent of 1931 when the National Liberals sided with the Conservatives, leaving a small rump of independent Liberals.

There have been stirrings of discontent on the Liberal benches and the left-leaning deputy leader Simon Hughes has called for in effect a Liberal veto on policies. This is unlikely to happen and disgruntled backbenchers are unlikely to threaten the Government: they also have no interest in an early election. However, some careful footwork will be necessary on controversial issues such as student finance to meet their concerns and keep them in the division lobbies on the Government’s side.

The Comprehensive Spending Review will really test the Government as it is necessary to reduce substantially the budget deficit while delivering policies that appear to be fair and do not penalise the least well off excessively. But the other side of that coin is that some universal benefits that the better off are able to draw might have to be withdrawn or modified. Winter fuel allowances may become available at a later age, but the really politically risky area is child benefit because so many families are beneficiaries. As a consequence, it is very expensive and if it is not cut bigger cuts will need to be made elsewhere.

It is the Liberal Democrats, as the junior partners in the Coalition Government, who stand to lose the most.

The electorate does seem to understand the need for the structural budget deficit to be tackled. However, the electorate is also prone to ‘fiscal nimbyism’: in favour of cuts in principle, but opposed to them when they affect a public service they use or cherish.

A better than expected recovery in tax revenues may give the Government some room for manoeuvre to ease the pain. However, there will be tensions, but these may often be between Conservative ministers defending their departments and a Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary of the Treasury. However, there are some issues that are very sensitive in political terms, tackling tax avoidance being one that has already caused some difficulties over the summer, for example in relation to the appointment of Sir Phillip Green.

However, the real test for the coalition will be getting the legislation on a referendum on the Alternative Vote (AV) through Parliament without any modifications such as requiring a minimum percentage of the electorate to vote in favour and then winning the popular vote. The Conservatives don’t want AV, but they recognise it is necessary for the survival of the coalition; hence their expressions of opposition will be muted.

The dilemma for the Liberal Democrats is that they have already seen their poll ratings plummet; indeed this is known to concern David Cameron. AV offers the possibility of a long-term change in the electoral system from which they should benefit. If they don’t achieve their goal that is when real instability in the coalition may appear.

Prof Wyn Grant is a graduate of the universities of Leicester, Strathclyde and Exeter. He joined the department in 1971 and was chair of department from 1990 to 1997. He is a member of the Population and Diseases Research Group in the Department of Biological Sciences and teaches at Warwick HRI, Wellesbourne. For the past five years, Prof Grant's research has been principally with Biological Scientists. He is now appearing regularly on Radio Scilly's sports show from 5 to 6 on Fridays, available online at Scilly.