WHAT'S NEXT FOR EGYPT?

By Dr Nicola Pratt, Politics and International Studies

On the tenth day of the protests in Egypt, Dr Nicola Pratt argues that the tried and tested methods of the Egyptian regime will fail this time.

Today is day 10 of the Egyptian popular uprising against the regime of President Hosni Mubarak. Since the street demonstrations began, the regime has implemented a number of tried and tested methods to repress the protests, which have been calling for him to step down. These methods include the use of heavy handed policing with batons, tear gas and water cannon; deploying plain clothes police officers and hired thugs to attack protesters; arresting/abducting opposition activists; cosmetic reform initiatives, such as appointing a vice president and new prime minister; attempts at co-opting opposition elements through promises of dialogue; characterising protesters as guided by foreign elements and working against the interests of the Egyptian people; and labelling the opposition as the Muslim Brotherhood, thereby fuelling panic amongst secular Egyptians of an imminent Islamist take-over.

Most of these methods have been used in the past to repress workers striking for better pay and conditions in the face of growing economic hardship, most recently in a wave of strikes in 2007 and 2008, and pro-democracy activists protesting against rigged elections and the monopoly of power by the ruling regime, most recently in May 2006. Some of these methods have been used against students demonstrating against Israeli injustices against the Palestinians in 2000 and against protesters opposing the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Many members of the Muslim Brotherhood, the largest opposition party in parliament before the elections of November 2010, have faced periodic harassment and some have been imprisoned on politically-motivated charges. These methods of repression have largely worked because each of these demonstrations have been focused on one grievance—whether economic or political. This has made it much easier for the regime to weaken the leadership of these protest movements and to cut off wider public support.

January 2011 marks a turning point because activists have succeeded in bringing together the grievances of different sections of Egyptian society against the current regime—economic hardship, endemic corruption and the lack of political freedom. This has meant that demonstrations have been on an unprecedented scale, not only in Cairo but in other cities of Egypt. The diversity of participants—from workers to intellectuals, Muslims and Christians, socialists and Islamists—has made it very difficult to label the demonstrators as unpatriotic. The violence of the police and hired thugs has strengthened the resolve of protesters and encouraged public sympathy rather than weakened its leadership . The protesters have refused to enter into dialogue with the government until President Mubarak steps down. The tried and tested tactics of President Mubarak’s regime are no longer working.

This presents a dilemma for the army. The military leadership have waited patiently for President Mubarak to solve the crisis. Today, could be the day that the patience runs out. Whatever the outcome, Egypt stands at the brink of momentous change.

Dr Nicola Pratt is Associate Professor in International Politics of the Middle East. Dr Pratt came to PAIS in July 2009 from the School of Political, Social and International Studies at the University of East Anglia. Before entering the world of academia, she lived and worked in Egypt for several years on projects concerning human rights and democratisation. Her research and teaching interests are located in the intersections between the politics of the Middle East and feminist international relations theory. She is particularly interested in the ways in which ‘ordinary people’ are shaped by and also influence national and international politics—particularly, democratization, conflict and conflict resolution. Dr Pratt was also Associate Editor of the British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies for 6 years.