THE IMPENDING GLOBAL FOOD CRISIS
Based on a talk by Dr David Hall-Matthews, University of Leeds
The years 2007 and 2008 were a disaster for the global food market, with spiralling prices pushing 200 million people worldwide into hunger. With food demand set to outstrip global supply later this century, how can governments ensure that we all have enough to eat? This is the challenging question that Dr David Hall-Matthews posed at a recent Institute for Advanced Study conference entitled The Problem of Power.
Defining famine is fiendishly difficult. In developing countries where thousands die from malnutrition, what differentiates malnutrition from famine? Dr Hall-Matthews argues that famine shouldn’t be seen as an event but a process. A famine doesn’t just ‘happen’ – there are usually multiple, complex causes over a period of time.
History has shown that government responses to famine have varied significantly. Take India as an example. Under British rule the Calcutta government made a limited response to the 1876-78 famine in southern India, adopting a laissez-faire attitude. Rulers in Madras, however, intervened by distributing aid. Calcutta put a stop to this challenge to the central state, closing down internal debate. They ignored critics who said that laissez-faire didn’t work and that the government was failing to understand the reality of famine on the ground.
Until the turn of the 20th century, the attitude towards famine relief as a ‘necessary evil’ predominated. The government wanted to be fiscally stringent and avoid costs; it viewed famine as the free markets’ responsibility. The prevailing view of the extent and role of the state changed with the rise of the nationalistic discourse of famine. No longer could the state on its own decide whether to respond to a famine. The motivation that failure to respond would result indirectly in loss of power forced even an undemocratic government to intervene. Academics debate whether the government’s failure to handle the Bengal famine in 1943 was the final trigger to end British rule in India.
So is democracy enough to prevent famine? Says Dr Hall-Matthews, “there has never been famine in a fully-functioning democracy with an active free press”. Here, ‘fully-functioning’ is the key. Zimbabwe, for example, was a better-functioning democracy in the 1990s but the downfall of democracy there brought increasing food insecurity. Other countries facing famine such as Malawi, Ethiopia and Sudan do not have the luxury of a fully-functioning democracy. Somalia doesn’t even have a functioning government.
Food markets in the 21st century are global and not designed to prioritise the hungriest.
All this assumes the primary responsibility for famine is national. Food markets in the 21st century are global and not designed to prioritise the hungriest. Indeed, market speculation exacerbated the 2007/08 world spike in food prices. One nation protecting its own interests can lead to increasing food insecurity for others, for example in 2007/08 India kept the food it had grown for itself instead of sending it for export and this pushed global food prices up even further. Of course, rich countries can afford to buy food from other nations, whereas increasingly poor countries cannot.
Scientists are predicting cataclysmic problems for global food supply. “Demand, supply and distribution of food are all under severe pressure,” says Dr Hall-Matthews. “Most of the world’s population growth will be in the poorest parts of the world, least able to feed their people. In China the growth of the middle class has led to hundreds of millions of middle-class people consuming meat at least once a day. They are trying to eat more and more like Americans.” According to Dr Hall-Matthews, Brazil, and potentially South Africa, will follow China’s lead.
Climate change is having an effect on food supply. Scientists predict that the hottest temperature in the 20th century will be the lowest peak in the 21st. If this happens then Africa will run out of water. Already, in Kenya, lakes are drying up as a result of growing flowers for export. The EU’s policy of growing bio fuels to replace dwindling oil supplies is, according to some scientists, another cause of food shortage.
What is the way forward? For Dr Hall-Matthews it’s a global food management system and policy. “We may be entering a new era in which the problem of hunger must be seen globally rather than locally.” In the next 30 to 40 years global food demand may outstrip supply. The countries that are the main exporters of food, the US, Brazil and Argentina, could become more powerful. China has bought land in South America and in Africa in order to grow food to import back home.
What is needed is a serious investment in agriculture along with a global vision rather than local protectionism. Vegetarianism is going to become a necessity as people globally will not be able to afford to eat much meat. There also, says Dr Hall-Matthews, needs to be better understanding about the green agenda. An example he gives is that it is economically and environmentally more sensible to ship beans to the UK from South Africa rather than growing them in a greenhouse in Kent, and it also means that the poorer country isn’t denied the profits. There also should be awareness of the risks that intensification of production brings with regard to disease, contamination and the destruction of small farming concerns.
The problem for capitalism is that it opposes command and control and is not geared to long-term risk. “Competition between nations will never end up well for the poor,” concludes Dr Hall-Matthews. Liberalism, however, allows for a democratic management system on a practical global level to ensure food security for all the world’s citizens.
Dr David Hall-Matthews is a senior lecturer in international development in the University of Leeds' Department of Politics and International Studies.
His research has developed in two directions: the politics of food security and obstacles to effective states in southern Africa; and the political economy of development in India and South Asia.
Dr Hall-Matthews is author of Peasants, Famine and the State in Colonial Western India (2005).
By Penelope Jenkins
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The Problem of Power
Dr David Hall-Matthews
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