OBAMA VS. ROMNEY: A TALE OF TWO FIRSTS

A podcast of Sir Robert Worcester's lecture at the Royal Society

It was American author Mark Twain who popularised the expression “lies, damned lies and statistics” and whilst he may have been referring to 19th century politics, the rise of the pollster gives the phrase a very 21st century feeling. It is an expression that probably has resonance for those in the Barack Obama and Mitt Romney camps as they compete for polling leads ahead of Thursday’s Presidential election.

Sir Robert Worcester KBE is one of the greatest names in polling. He founded Mori (now Ipsos MORI) in 1969, is a past president of the World Association for Public Opinion Research and is an honorary professor at the University of Warwick. Speaking at a lecture for University of Warwick alumni (available to listen to here) in London, England, Sir Robert brought his decades of experience and insight in polling to answer the lecture’s key question “Who's going to win, and why?” The lecture was chaired by the University of Warwick’s Dr Oz Hassan.

“Four/five months ago I said forget the horse race, watch the electoral college,” says Sir Robert. “Now I’m telling you, even more important, is watch Ohio because every American election for a long time has really been coalescing on the cusp of Ohio and Pennsylvania.”

Based on the polling data available at the time, Sir Robert believes that Obama will be re-elected to the White House. But will Sir Robert be proved right? If the financial figures are any indicator, the incumbent President certainly seems to agree with Sir Richard’s conclusions on the importance of taking Ohio. Obama is spending £40 million in Ohio against Romney’s £20 million in the same state.

“You see reported in newspapers that Romney’s spending more money,” says Sir Robert. “Well he ain’t shooting where the ducks are flying as they would have said in the Mid-west where I grew up.”

And Worcester does not believe the debates, which initially provided a boost for Romney, hold significant power against these trends.

“Romney won the first debate but so did Nick, and look what happened to Nick.” [Worcester is referring to the UK’s Deputy Prime Minster Nick Clegg and his success in the UK’s first Prime Ministerial debates in 2010.]

With the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue hanging on the choices of citizens in just a few states, Sir Robert believes that core voters and their desire to turn out, rather than swing voters and their ‘last minute’ decision, will be more important for this election.

Aside from the closeness of the race, each candidate has their own problems unique to their traditional voting base. Romney faces what Sir Robert refers to as the ‘ABR’ (“Anyone but Romney”) issue, with the Republican Party splitting in the Primaries in favour of any candidate but the former Governor of Massachusetts. According to Sir Robert, that split vote led to Romney winning the Republican nomination.

Faith, specifically his own, may not be as big an issue for Romney as some media coverage would suggest. A 2008 Gallup poll, found that only 17 per cent of Americans said they would never vote for a Mormon/member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. A follow up poll in 2012 has the figure around 18 per cent but also indicated that 40 per cent of Americans did not know that Romney was a Mormon.

Obama’s support for same-sex marriage may have a similar impact on his core supporters, with some members of the African-American faith community speaking out in opposition to this move, stating it conflicts with the beliefs taught in their churches.

Whilst Romney may be more conservative on a number of issues and Obama clearly ticks the ‘Anyone but Romney’ box, it is unlikely that core voters would ‘switch sides’ as there are clearly other ideological issues and historical voting patterns at play. So what are traditional party supporters to do?

In the lecture, Sir Robert focuses on the problem for Romney’s supporters and says: “You add it up and you think, are they going to be bigoted racially or are they going to be bigoted religiously? What are they going to do? I think a lot of them will stay home.”

Looking beyond the US’ provincial issues, Sir Robert points out that this is a campaign that truly matters to people outside the US, as well as those who have a democratic stake in the outcome. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney offer very different world views and subsequent methods of dealing with world problems. As Sir Robert describes it, Obama offers the world “pragmatism” in sharp contrast to the “muscularism and values” of Romney.

Whilst Sir Robert and the polling companies have made their call, the only poll that really counts is the one on Thursday 6 November 2012. It will, however, be interesting to see how many of Sir Robert’s predictions materialise.

To listen to the whole lecture, click on the podcast icon at the top of the page.

To view the accompanying slides from the lecture, please click the PDF icon:

Binders full of data

Whilst you listen to the podcast, have a look at some other statistical highlights the web has to offer on the US Presidential election.

1) How can data be used to shape the political debate and assist in political campaigning? This beautiful interactive piece of research from advocacy organisation Demos looks at governmental policy and its impact on poverty: www.trackingpovertyandpolicy.org

2) It’s not just the Americans who can produce great data journalism on the election. The Guardian, in conjunction with Real Clear Politics, has set up www.isbarackobamathepresident.com. Hover over the balloons to see how the pollsters believe each state will vote.

3) Mormonism is synonymous with Utah, the home state of the Church of Latter Day Saints, but the Church has temples across the USA and across the world. This map, by the LDS Church, shows locations of LDS temples across the world. www.ldschurchtemples.com/maps/map/

4) Not everything has to be serious to be informative. Website XKCD ran a comic strip detailing a very long list of 'ground breaking' Presidents. So, whilst there’s never been a Mormon President or a black man elected for two consecutive terms, there was also a point in US history when no one with a beard had been re-elected to the Whitehouse and no one with two middle names had become President: xkcd.com/1122/

5) Polling does not stop when the election’s over. Whoever wins will have Presidential approval ratings to deal with. Gallup has created the Presidential Job Approval Center (sic) for those who like their politics statistical: www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

Sir Robert Worcester KBE is the founder of MORI (now Ipsos MORI), past president of the World Association for Public Opinion Research, Chancellor of the University of Kent and an honorary professor at the University of Warwick. Born and raised in the US, he is now a well-known figure in British politics and public opinion research. He is a media commentator, especially on the subject of voting intentions in British and US elections. Sir Robert is a governor of the Ditchley Foundation and is a vice president of the Wildlife Trusts. He is on the advisory board of the Media Standards Trust (MST) and is a Freeman of the City of London. He holds a number of honorary degrees and fellowships, including an LLD from Warwick (2012). He is an author and editor. His current book, with Dr Roger Mortimore, Dr Paul Baines and Mark Gill is ‘Explaining Cameron’s Coalition’ (2010).

You can follow Sir Robert on Twitter: @RobertWorcester