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MiR@W day: Theory and Applications of Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

Monday 22nd January 2018

Room B3.02

Organiser: Simon French

Although we live in a data-rich age, it is not true that we have or ever will have sufficient data to evaluate all potential future events, risks or opportunities. Some will have novel or unexplored characteristics which require that we need look to experts for guidance. Implicit use of expert judgement has always been present in any risk or decision analysis, if only in selecting the models and analytic methods to use. But it is now common to use panels of experts to provide judgement of key uncertainties when there are few relevant data.

The seminar will explore theoretical advances and practical applications of expert judgement in many domains. Judgements are subject to behavioural biases and thus it may be necessary to calibrate and debias the judgements. That is not easy to do theoretically and in some circumstances it may be unethical to do so.

Preliminary list of speakers:

Simon French and David Hartley (Department of Statistics, University of Warwick)

Robert Mackay (Department of Mathematics, University of Warwick)

Mark Burgman (Centre for Environmental Policy, London School of Economics)

Laura Bojke, (Centre for Health Economics, University of York)

Willy Aspinall (School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol)