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CRiSM Seminar

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Location: A1.01

Prof Antony Pettitt, Lancaster University
Statistical inference for assessing infection control measures for the transmission of pathogens in hospitals
Patients can acquire infections from pathogen sources within hospitals and certain pathogens appear to be found mainly in hospitals.  Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) is an example of a hospital acquired pathogen that continues to be of particular concern to patients and hospital management.  Patients infected with MRSA can develop severe infections which lead to increased patient morbidity and costs for the hospital.  Pathogen transmission to a patient can occur via health-care workers that do not regularly perform hand hygiene.  Infection control measures that can be considered include isolation for colonised patients and improved hand hygiene for health-care workers.

The talk develops statistical methods and models in order to assess the effectiveness of the two control measures (i) isolation and (ii) improved hand hygiene.  For isolation, data from a prospective study carried out in a London hospital is considered and statistical models based on detailed patient data are used to determine the effectiveness of isolation.  The approach is Bayesian.
For hand hygiene it is not possible, for ethical and practical reasons, to carry out a prospective study to investigate various levels of hand hygiene.  Instead hand hygiene effects are investigated by simulation using parameter values estimated from data on health-care worker hand hygiene and weekly colonisation incidence collected from a hospital ward in Brisbane.  The approach uses profile likelihoods.Both approaches involve transmission parameters where there is little information available and contrasting compromises have to be made. Conclusions about the effectiveness of the two infection control measures will be discussed. The talk involves collaborative work with Marie Forrester, Emma McBryde, Chris Drovandi, Ben Cooper, Gavin Gibson, Sean McElwain.

 

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