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CRiSM Seminar - Simon Spencer

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Location: A1.01

Simon Spencer (Warwick)

Outbreak detection for campylobacteriosis in New Zealand

Identifying potential outbreaks of campylobacteriosis from a background of sporadic cases is made more difficult by the large spatial and temporal variation in incidence. One possible approach involves using Bayesian hierarchical models to simultaneously estimate spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal components of the risk of infection. By assuming that outbreaks are characterized by spatially localised periods of increased incidence, it becomes possible to calculate an outbreak probability for each potential disease cluster. The model correctly identifies known outbreaks in data from New Zealand for the period 2001 to 2007. Studies using simulated data have shown that by including epidemiological information in the model construction, this approach can outperform an established method.

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