Discussion Papers | Journal Articles | Other Papers | Book Chapters | Books | Newspaper Articles |

1. Discussion papers

Prudent Banks and Creative Mimics: Can we tell the difference? (with Andrew Powell and Antonia Maier), CAGE WP 76/2012, February 2012.

"When bigger isn't better: Bail-outs and bank behaviour" (with Han Hao Li and Lei Zhang), CEPR DP8602 (also circulated as CAGE WP 66/2011), October 2011.

“Liquidity when it matters most: QE and Tobin's q” (with John Driffill), CEPR DP8511 (also circulated as CAGE WP 68/2011), August 2011.

"Macro-Governance and the Great Game of International Monetary Reform", presented at International Monetary System RWB Conference, Paris, December 2010.

”Macro-governance” Queries No. 01 (4) 2011, pp. 39-46. Proceedings of IPD Conference, Washington DC

“Delay and Haircuts in Sovereign Debt: Recovery and Sustainability” (with K. Thampanishvong, S. Ghosal), presented at Royal Economic Society annual meeting April 2010.

‘Crises and Recovery in Emerging Markets: 'Phoenix miracles' or endogenous growth?’ (with Lei Zhang). LSE, Financial Markets Group. Special Paper 183, Cycles Contagion and Crises, November, 2008.

‘Leverage and Asset Bubbles: Averting Armageddon with Chapter 11?’ (with Joseph Stiglitz) mimeo, University of Warwick, November, 2008. Presented at ISI Conference, Delhi, December, 2008

‘Eastern caution, Western ebullience and global imbalances’, (with Paolo Santos-Monteiro and Lei Zhang) mimeo, University of Warwick, November, 2008. Presented at ISI Conference, Delhi, December, 2008

‘House prices and inflation: deregulation, overshooting and asset bubbles’ (with Ishita Mohanty and Lei Zhang) mimeo, University of Warwick, November, 2008. Presented at MMF Conference, London, September, 2008

'The fickle fortunes of global finance' A short play in three acts by Marcus Miller (prepared for a meeting of the Franco-British Council in Paris, 16 March, 2007)

'Punishment Without Crime? Prison as a Worker-Discipline Device', (with Jennifer C Smith), CEPR Discussion Paper no. 6621, 2007

"When credibility fails: anticipated devaluation and recession" (with Lei Zhang), mimeo, University of Warwick, 2007

'Capital Flows, Interest Rates and Precautionary Behaviour: a model of Global Imbalances,' (with Lei Zhang), MMF Research Paper no. 152, 2007

'Monitoring Bands and Monitoring Rules: how currency intervention can change market composition', (with Luisa Corrado and Lei Zhang), Research Paper Series no. 91, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, 2007

'Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and 'Self-insurance' (with Lei Zhang) CEPR Discussion Paper no. 6000, 2006

‘Supply Shocks and Currency Crises: The Policy Dilemma Reconsidered,’ (with Lei Zhang and Javier Garcia-Fronti) CEPR Discussion Paper no. 5905, 2006

‘Sovereign Debt Restructuring: the Judge, the Vultures and Creditor Rights,’ ( with Dania Thomas) CEPR Discussion Paper no. 5710, 2006

'Crises in Global Financial Markets: career-concerned traders and insured elites?' (with Sayantan Ghosal), Preliminary Draft (May 2006)

“Bargaining and Sustainability: The Argentine Debt Swap of 2005”, (with Amrita Dhillon, Javier García-Fronti and Sayantan Ghosal). CEPR Discussion Paper no. 5236. (September 2005).

“Capital flows and the US ‘New Economy’: consumption smoothing and risk exposure” (with Olli Castrén and Lei Zhang). ECB Working Paper No. 459 (March 2005)

“Case study: Restructuring Argentine debt: a renegotiation game?” (with Javier Garcia Fronti) CSGR Discussion Papers February 2005

“Credit Crunch and Keynesian Contraction: Argentina in Crisis”, (with Javier Garcia Fronti and Lei Zhang). CEPR Discussion Paper, No.4889 (January 2005).

“World Finance and the US 'New Economy': Risk Sharing and Risk Exposure”, (with Lei Zhang). CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 4855 ( January 2005).

“Argentina in Default: the Renegotiation Game” (with J Garcia Fronti) (February 2004) CSGR Discussion Papers.

“Growth Expectations, Capital Flows and International Risk Sharing” (with Olli Castrén, and Roger Stiegert), June 2003, (ECB Working Paper No. 237)

“Coordination failure, moral hazard and sovereign bankruptcy procedures” (with Sayantan Ghosal). CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 3729 (Feb 2003).

“Learning to forget? Contagion and political risk in Brazil” (with Kannika Thampanishvong and Lei Zhang). CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3785 (March 2003).

“Sovereign Default by Argentina: ‘Slow Motion Train Crash’ or Self-fulfilling Crisis?” (with Lei Zhang and Javier Fronti). CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3399 (May 2002).

“Sovereign Debt Restructuring: New Articles, New Contracts--or No Change?” International Economic Policy Brief, No. PB02-3 (April 2002), Institute for International Economics, Washington D.C.

“Exchange Rate Monitoring Bands: Theory and Evidence” (with Luisa Corrado and Lei Zhang). CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3337 (April 2002).

“Growth Expectations, Capital Flows and International Risk Sharing” (with Olli Castren and Roger Stiegert), November 2001, ECB working paper (June 2003).

“Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: the idea of a ‘Greenspan Put’” (with P. Weller and L. Zhang). CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3041 (November 2001).

“Global Financial Crises: Mechanisms and Incentives” (with M. Kumar and P. Masson). IMF Working Paper No. 00/105, Research Department, IMF, 2000. (Revise and resubmit from IMF Staff Papers.)

“Bankruptcy Protection Against Macroeconomic Shocks: The Case for a Super Chapter 11” (with Joseph Stiglitz), Mimeo, University of Warwick, 1999.

2. Journal Articles (since 1990) 

“ Macroeconomics: a discipline not a science”. Manchester School, 2011, Volume 79.

"The Illusion Of Stability-Low Inflation In A Bubble Economy," Manchester School, vol. 77(s1), pages 126-149, 2009.

"Towards new microfoundations for macro", Central Banking, vol. 20(1), 2009, pp.53-58

"Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Judge Griesa, the vultures and creditor rights", (with Dania Thomas) The World Economy, vol. 30(10), October 2007, pp.1491-1509

"Bulls, Bears and excess volatility: can currency intervension help?", (with Luisa Corrado, Lei Zhang) International Journal Of Finance And Economics, vol. 12(2), March 2007, pp.261-272

"UK external imbalances and the sterling: are they on a sustainable path?", (with Eleni Iliopulos) Open Economies Review, vol. 18(5), November 2007

"'Irrational exuberance' and capital flows for the US New Economy: a simple global model", (with Olli Castrén and Lei Zhang) International Journal Of Finance And Economics, vol. 12(1), January 2007, pp.89-105

"Debt Restructuring and Economic Recovery: Analysing the Argentine Swap", (with Amrita Dhillon, Javier Garcia-Fronti and Sayantan Ghosal) The World Economy, vol. 29(4) , April 2006, pp.377-398

“Co-ordination Failure, Moral Hazard and Sovereign Bankruptcy Procedures” (with S. Ghosal). Economic Journal, vol. 113, April 2003, pp.276-304

“No Credit for Transition: European institutions and German unemployment” (with J. Driffill). Scottish Journal of Political Economy, vol. 50, no. 1, 2003, pp. 41-60

“Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: Analysing the ‘Greenspan Put’” (with P. Weller and L. Zhang). Economic Journal, vol. 112, March 2002, pp.171-86

"The End of History" and the Stock Market Boom : a cautionary tale of capitalist triumphalism'. European Business Review, Vol. 14, No. 1, 2002

“Sovereign Liquidity Crises: The strategic case for a payments standstill” (with Lei Zhang). Economic Journal, 110, January, 2000, pp.335-362

"Asset bubbles, Leverage and 'Lifeboats': Elements of the East Asian Crisis" (with Hali J. Edison and Pongsak Luangaram). Economic Journal, Vol. 110, January 2000, pp. 309-334

“Creditor panic, asset bubbles and sharks: three view of the Asian crisis” (with Lei Zhang). Chapter 10 in U. Dadush et al. (eds) Private Capital Flows in the Age of Globalization, pp. 222-240. Cheltenham, UK: E Elgar, 2000

"Designing Monetary Policy when Unemployment Persists" (with Ben Lockwood and Lei Zhang), Economica, 1998, Vol.65, No.259, pp.327-345

"Financial crisis in East Asia: Bank runs, asset bubbles and antidotes" (with P Luangaram), National Institute Economic Review, 1998, No. 165 (July), pp. 66-82

"Shareholders and Stakeholders:Human Capital and Industry Equilibrium" (with Roberto Ippolito and Lei Zhang), Economic Journal,108 (490-508) March,1998

"Debt in industry equilibrium" (with Steven Fries and William Perraudin) Review of Financial Studies, 10, 39-67, January 1997

"Deficits, inflation and the political economy of Ukraine" (with Oleh Havrylyshyn and William Perraudin), Economic Policy, October, 1994, 354-401

"Hyperinflation and stabilization: Cagan revisited" (with Lei Zhang) Economic Journal,107(441-454), March 1997

"Stochastic saddlepoint systems: stabilization policy and the stock market" (with Paul Weller) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19, 1995, 279-302

"Speculative anticipations and the return to Gold in 1925" (with Alan Sutherland). Economic Journal, 104, July, 1994, 804-812

“Why have a target zone?” (with Paul Krugman) Carnegie Rochester Conference on Public Policy (Supplement to Journal of Monetary Economics) 38, 1993, 279-314

“Contracts, Credibility and Common Knowledge” (with Alan Sutherland)IMF Staff Papers, 40, March 1993, pp.178-200. Reprinted in F. Torres; G. Francesco (eds.) Adjustment and growth in the European Monetary Union, pp. 93-115, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993

“Learning and Inflation Convergence in the ERM” (with John Driffill). Economic Journal, 103, March, 1993, pp.369-378

“Inflation Convergence with Realignments in a Two-Speed Europe” (with Luisa Lambertini, and Alan Sutherland) Economic Journal, 102, March 1992, pp.333-341

“Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia” (with Paul Weller), Economic Journal, 101, November 1991, pp.1380-1399

“The Walter’s Critique’ of the EMS : a Case of Inconsistent Expectations?” (with Alan Sutherland) The Manchester School of Economics and Social Studies, 59, Supplement, 1991, pp.23-37

“Currency Bands, Target Zones and Price Flexibility” (with Paul Weller)IMF Staff Papers, 38, March 1991, pp.184-215

“Currency Bubbles which Affect Fundamentals: A Qualitative Treatment” (with Paul Weller), Economic Journal 100, Supplement, 1990, pp.170-179

“When Does Coordination Pay?” (with Mark Salmon). Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, 14(3-4), July-Oct. 1990, pp.553-569

“Entering a Preannounced Currency Band”, (with Masaki Ichikawa and Alan Sutherland), Economics Letters, 34(4), 1990, pp.363-368. Reprinted in P. Krugman and M. Miller (eds.) Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands, Cambridge CUP (1991)

3. Recent book chapters, discussion papers and papers in conference volumes

3.1. Papers in Conference Volumes/Festschrifts, etc

“Handling liquidity shocks: QE and Tobin’s q”. (with John Driffill) In J. Chadha and S. Holly (eds.) Interest Rates, Prices and Liquidity. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,  2012.

“Managing Financial Crisis in Emerging Markets: New Developments in Review”, (with S. Ghosal). In A G. A. Valladao and P da Motta Veiga (eds): Political issues in the EU-Mercosur Negotiations. Paris: Chaire Mercosur De Sciences Po, 2003, pp. 54-94.

“Sovereign Liquidity Crises: the Strategic Case for a Payments Standstill” (with L. Zhang, Reprinted, with Postscript added). In Vinod Aggarwal and Brigitte Granville (eds.): Sovereign Debt: Origins, Crises and Restructurings. London: Chatham House, 2003, pp. 152-198.

Discussion of “Exchange rate regimes in theory and practice” by Andrew Crockett and “Is foreign exchange intervention effective?” by Takatoshi Ito. In Paul Mizen (ed.), Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets: Essays in Honour of Charles Goodhart, Volume 2. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2003.

“Bail outs, Bail ins and Contracts: the Evolving New Architecture” (with Mohan Kumar). In G Underhill and X Zhang (eds.): International Financial Architecture under Stress: Global Structures vs. National Imperatives. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003.

“Sequencing of capital account liberalisation: A challenge to the Washington consensus” (with L. Zhang). Journal of the World Economy, 2000, 11, pp. 8-13 (in Chinese). Also published in D. Dasgupta, M. Uzan, D. Wilson (eds) Capital Flows without Crisis? Reconciling Capital Mobility and Economic Stability, London: Routledge, May 2001.

"Coping with Crises: Is there a Silver Bullet?" (with Amar Bhattacharya). Chapter 11 in P. Agenor et al. (eds.) The Asian Financial Crisis, Cambridge University Press, 1999, pp 357-385.

3.2 Book chapters

“Learning to Trust Lula: Contagion and Political Risk in Brazil” (with Kannika Thampanishvong and Lei Zhang). In F. Giavazzi, I. Goldfajn and S. Herrera (eds) Inflation Targeting, Debt, and the Brazilian Experience, 1999 to 2003 (April 2005) MIT Press

“Co-ordination Failure, Moral Hazard and Sovereign Bankruptcy Procedures” (with S. Ghosal). In Andrew G. Haldane (ed.) Fixing Financial Crises in the Twenty-first Century. London Routledge. pp. 281-312 with comments by David Vines pp 313 – 319. May 2003

"Managing Financial Crisis in Emerging Markets: New Developments in Review”, (with S. Ghosal). In A G. A. Valladao and P da Motta Veiga (eds): Political issues in the EU-Mercosur Negotiations. Paris: Chaire Mercosur De Sciences Po, 2003, pp. 54-94.

“Sovereign Liquidity Crises: the Strategic Case for a Payments Standstill” (with L. Zhang, Reprinted, with Postscript added). In Vinod Aggarwal and Brigitte Granville (eds.): Sovereign Debt: Origins, Crises and Restructurings. London: Chatham House, 2003, pp. 152-198.

Discussion of “Exchange rate regimes in theory and practice” by Andrew Crockett and “Is foreign exchange intervention effective?” by Takatoshi Ito. In Paul Mizen (ed.), Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets: Essays in Honour of Charles Goodhart, Volume 2. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2003.

“Bail outs, Bail ins and Contracts: the Evolving New Architecture” (with Mohan Kumar). In G Underhill and X Zhang (eds.): International Financial Architecture under Stress: Global Structures vs. National Imperatives. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003.

“Sequencing of capital account liberalisation: A challenge to the Washington consensus” (with L. Zhang). Journal of the World Economy, 2000, 11, pp. 8-13 (in Chinese). Also published in D. Dasgupta, M. Uzan, D. Wilson (eds) Capital Flows without Crisis? Reconciling Capital Mobility and Economic Stability, London: Routledge, May 2001.

"Coping with Crises: Is there a Silver Bullet?" (with Amar Bhattacharya). Chapter 11 in P. Agenor et al. (eds.) The Asian Financial Crisis, Cambridge University Press, 1999, pp 357-385.

4. Books and monographs

 The Asian Financial Crisis: Causes, Contagion and Consequences, Agenor, M. Miller, D. Vines and A. Weber, (eds.) Cambridge University Press. 1999, pp.xxviii, 415.

Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands, P. Krugman and M. Miller (eds.) Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992, pp.xxii, 247.

Blueprints for Exchange Rate Management, M. Miller, B. Eichengreen and R. Portes (editors), London; Harcourt Brace Jovanovich Academic Press 1989, pp.xviii, 329.

The European Monetary System, F. Giavazzi, S. Micossi and M. Miller (editors), Cambridge : CUP 1988. (Also published in Italian, 1992).

Targets and Indicators : A Blueprint for the International Coordination of Economic Policy (with John Williamson) Policy Analyses in International Economics no.22 Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, September, 1987, pp.xii. 108. (Also published in Japanese, 1988).

 5. Newspaper Articles

 'How Keynes would solve the eurozone crisis" (with Robert Skidelsky), The Financial Times, May 15 2012.

'Growth bonds a win-win for trouble eurozone' (with Stephany Griffith-Jones and Robert Akerlof), The Financial Times, December 9 2011.

'Is it mad to protect against excessive bank risk-taking?', The Financial Times, March 15 2011.

'Put the nation's interests first' (with Robert Skidelsky and Danny Blanchflower), The Financial Times, March 17 2010.

'Do not rush to switch off the life support' (with Robert Skidelsky), The Financial Times, March 3 2010.

'First priority must be to restore robust growth' (with Robert Skidelsky and others), The Financial Times, January 18 2010.